Our Final 2026 Emmy Predictions: Who Will Win?

Last weekend’s Creative Arts Awards changed the 2026 Emmys outlook. Here are our final predictions before Monday night.

The ballots are closed. The campaigning is over. The first Emmys have already been handed out. Now there is nothing left to do but take one last shot at predictin the final calls for the 2026 Emmys.

When we last updated our 2026 Emmy predictions in August, The Pitt looked firmly planted at the top of drama, Hacks remained the safest comedy bet, Beef appeared to have the clearest limited-series path and Apple TV newcomer Widow’s Bay was threatening to turn a strong first season into something much bigger.

Three weeks later, that last part has become impossible to ignore.

Widow’s Bay emerged from Creative Arts weekend with eight wins, the most of any scripted series, including comedy casting, cinematography, production design, score, music supervision, sound editing, sound mixing and a guest acting trophy for Betty Gilpin. DTF St. Louis followed with six, while The Pitt and Pluribus each collected four and Beef won three. Apple TV leads all platforms entering Monday’s ceremony.

Those below-the-line results do not automatically tell us who wins the major categories, but they tell us where voters were looking. And in at least one race, they are enough to change our prediction.

The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards air Monday, September 14, at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on NBC and Peacock, hosted by Mariska Hargitay. Here’s our Final Predictiosn for the 2026 Emmy Awards based on one final look at the field.

PLEASE NOTE: These forecasts don’t reflect my personal preferences. My goal is to predict what I think the Television Academy is most likely to do, not what I hope they’ll do. For added context, I’ve listed both my projected winner and my personal pick in every category, because half the fun of Emmy Predictions is watching where the head and the heart disagree.

This article is sponsored by Kalshi and reflects live, accurate market data updated in real time. Nothing in this piece constitutes insider information, and nothing here is intended to influence trading activity.

Full 2026 Primetime Emmy Predictions & Live Odds Below:

DRAMA SERIES

‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max] — Will Win

‘Pluribus’ [Apple TV] — Wish Would Win

‘The Diplomat’ [Netflix]

‘Slow Horses’ [Apple TV]

‘Paradise’ [Hulu]

‘The Gilded Age’ [HBO Max]

‘A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms’ [HBO Max]

‘Your Friends & Neighbors’ [Apple TV]

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No change here.

The Pitt entered this race with 25 nominations, more than any other program, then backed that up during Creative Arts weekend with four victories, including drama casting. That last win is particularly difficult to ignore for a series built around an enormous ensemble.

There is still a plausible Pluribus upset. Vince Gilligan’s strange, ambitious science-fiction drama won four Creative Arts Emmys of its own, including production design and sound mixing, and Rhea Seehorn gives it a genuine emotional center.

But The Pitt has breadth, acting support and defending-champion status. Until somebody actually beats it, this remains its Emmy to lose.

COMEDY SERIES

‘Hacks’ [HBO Max]

‘Widow’s Bay’ [Apple TV] — Will Win

‘Shrinking’ [Apple TV]

‘Abbott Elementary’ [ABC]

‘Margo’s Got Money Troubles’ [Apple TV]

‘The Bear’ [FX/Hulu]

‘Only Murders in the Building’ [Hulu]

‘Nobody Wants This’ [Netflix]

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This is our biggest change.

In August, we had Hacks winning and Widow’s Bay as the show we wanted to win. We are switching.

The final season of Hacks remains an enormous threat and entered with a comedy-leading 24 nominations, a single-year record for the genre. But Widow’s Bay just won eight Creative Arts Emmys, including comedy casting, and no scripted series arrives Monday with more trophies already banked.

That looks less like an interesting newcomer and more like a wave.

Matthew Rhys, Kate O’Flynn, Dale Dickey and Stephen Root give voters multiple opportunities to continue it Monday. More importantly, the series connected across branches rather than with one isolated pocket of the Television Academy. Winning cinematography, production design, score, music supervision and both sound categories is not a niche showing. That is a series the whole Academy watched.

Hacks can absolutely win. But if we are making one final prediction rather than protecting the prediction we made three weeks ago, Widow’s Bay is now the pick.

LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES

‘Beef’ [Netflix] — Will Win

‘DTF St. Louis’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

‘Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette’ [FX/Hulu]

‘The Beast in Me’ [Netflix]

‘All Her Fault’ [Peacock]

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This is the category that gave us the most trouble.

The second season of Beef entered with a category-leading 16 nominations and has three wins. DTF St. Louis has six, meaning the HBO Max challenger enters Monday with twice as many trophies banked.

More importantly, look at what those six wins actually were. Steven Conrad won both directing and writing for a limited series, a double that historically travels with the top prize. David Harbour and Linda Cardellini swept both supporting acting categories. The program also took cinematography and picture editing. That is not a craft-only showing. That is a series winning in exactly the places that predict a series win.

We are keeping Beef by the narrowest possible margin, because the previous installment already proved Emmy voters understand precisely what this anthology is doing, and because it has acting support, writing support and two directing nominations of its own.

But DTF St. Louis would be our choice, and if it wins Monday, nobody should pretend it came out of nowhere.

TV MOVIE

‘Remarkably Bright Creatures’ [Netflix] — Will Win

‘Miss You, Love You’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

‘Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan: Ghost War’ [Prime Video]

‘Heads of State’ [Prime Video]

‘People We Meet on Vacation’ [Netflix]

Netflix has the advantage with ‘Remarkably Bright Creatures,’ especially with Sally Field in the mix. Still, ‘Miss You, Love You’ feels like the more personal and emotionally resonant choice.

VARIETY SERIES

‘The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’ [CBS] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

‘Last Week Tonight With John Oliver’ [HBO Max]

‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ [ABC]

‘Saturday Night Live’ [NBC]

‘The Daily Show’ [Comedy Central]

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The farewell narrative was already powerful in August.

Then The Late Show won five Creative Arts Emmys.

At this point, the Television Academy has every reason to give Colbert and his team the major prize as well. It would be both a recognition of this season and a sendoff to one of late-night television’s defining runs.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Noah Wyle, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Mark Ruffalo, ‘Task’ [HBO Max]

Sterling K. Brown, ‘Paradise’ [Hulu]

Gary Oldman, ‘Slow Horses’ [Apple TV] Wish Would Win

Rufus Sewell, ‘The Diplomat’ [Netflix]

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Mark Ruffalo, Sterling K. Brown, Gary Oldman and Rufus Sewell make this an absurdly accomplished field. It still feels like Noah Wyle versus everybody else.

Season two allowed Dr. Robby to become considerably messier than the version viewers initially embraced. That actually strengthens Wyle’s case. He is playing a gifted physician coming apart under the weight of his own decisions rather than simply repeating the performance voters already rewarded.

He won last year and remains the center of television’s most nominated series. We are not overthinking it.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Rhea Seehorn, ‘Pluribus’ [Apple TV] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Keri Russell, ‘The Diplomat’ [Netflix]

Zendaya, ‘Euphoria’ [HBO Max]

Carrie Coon, ‘The Gilded Age’ [HBO Max]

Chase Infiniti, ‘The Testaments’ [Hulu]

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This may be the easiest acting prediction of the night.

Keri Russell remains a serious threat for The Diplomat, while Zendaya, Carrie Coon and Chase Infiniti round out a terrific category. But Pluribus is built around Seehorn in a way few nominated series depend upon a single performer.

After years of watching her leave Emmy night without a trophy for Better Call Saul, voters finally have another opportunity. More importantly, this one would not be a career apology. Seehorn deserves it for Pluribus.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Tom Pelphrey, ‘Task’ [HBO Max] — Will Win

Patrick Ball, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

Billy Crudup, ‘The Morning Show’ [Apple TV]

Jack Lowden, ‘Slow Horses’ [Apple TV]

Shawn Hatosy, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

Carlos-Manuel Vesga, ‘Pluribus’ [Apple TV]

Gerran Howell, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

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This is one of the places where The Pitt could either demonstrate its dominance or fall victim to its own strength.

Patrick Ball, Shawn Hatosy and Gerran Howell are all nominated from the series. That gives voters plenty of options and creates an obvious vote-splitting problem.

Tom Pelphrey has the cleaner lane for Task, and he remains our prediction. But if this turns into a genuine Pitt sweep, Hatosy is the performance we would most like to see carried along with it.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Sepideh Moafi, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max] — Will Win

Katherine LaNasa, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

Karolina Wydra, ‘Pluribus’ [Apple TV]

Julianne Nicholson, ‘Paradise’ [Hulu]

Allison Janney, ‘The Diplomat’ [Netflix]

Taylor Dearden, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

Fiona Dourif, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

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Here the vote-splitting problem becomes even more extreme.

Sepideh Moafi, Katherine LaNasa, Taylor Dearden and Fiona Dourif are all competing from The Pitt. Allison Janney, Julianne Nicholson and Karolina Wydra would be perfectly happy to watch those votes divide four ways.

Moafi still feels like the narrowest favorite, but LaNasa remains our personal choice. There may not be another category Monday where reading the room matters more than reading the individual performances.

LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Matthew Rhys, ‘Widow’s Bay’ [Apple TV] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Jason Segel, ‘Shrinking’ [Apple TV]

Martin Short, ‘Only Murders in the Building’ [Hulu]

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, ‘Wonder Man’ [Disney+]

Steve Carell, ‘Rooster’ [HBO Max]

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One of the best arguments for the Widow’s Bay series prediction is sitting right here.

Steve Carell and Jason Segel are both chasing their first Emmys. Martin Short remains beloved. Yahya Abdul-Mateen II was excellent in Wonder Man.

Rhys nevertheless feels perfectly positioned between performance and momentum. His mayor works because he never treats the show as though he has been informed exactly what genre he is in. The performance can be funny, frightened, absurd and unexpectedly moving without announcing the transition.

He also has the benefit of being nominated elsewhere this year for The Beast in Me. Voters are getting a reminder of just how wide his range actually is.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Jean Smart, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max] — Will Win

Lisa Kudrow, ‘The Comeback’ [HBO Max]

Elle Fanning, ‘Margo’s Got Money Troubles’ [Apple TV] — Wish Would Win

Quinta Brunson, ‘Abbott Elementary’ [ABC]

Ayo Edebiri, ‘The Bear’ [FX/Hulu]

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If Hacks loses comedy series, that does not necessarily mean Jean Smart loses anything.

Smart has made Deborah Vance one of the defining television characters of this decade, and the final-season narrative only makes an already formidable Emmy record harder to challenge. Quinta Brunson, Ayo Edebiri and Lisa Kudrow are former winners. Elle Fanning gives the category its most compelling first-time possibility.

Fanning is our choice. Her performance is one of the reasons the tonal balancing act of Margo’s Got Money Troublesworks at all, and the series took three Creative Arts wins of its own.

But predicting somebody to beat Jean Smart at the Emmys remains an excellent way to regret an Emmy prediction.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Harrison Ford, ‘Shrinking’ [Apple TV] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Stephen Root, ‘Widow’s Bay’ [Apple TV]

Nick Offerman, ‘Margo’s Got Money Troubles’ [Apple TV]

Paul W. Downs, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max]

Michael Urie, ‘Shrinking’ [Apple TV]

Tyler James Williams, ‘Abbott Elementary’ [ABC]

Colman Domingo, ‘The Four Seasons’ [Netflix]

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Harrison Ford has won lifetime honors, AFI recognition and practically every form of cultural permanence available to a movie star.

He has never won an Emmy.

Shrinking gives voters an opportunity that does not require treating the trophy as ceremonial. Ford is genuinely wonderful as Paul, and the third season deepens the character without sanding down the irritation and stubbornness that make him interesting.

Michael J. Fox has already given Shrinking one of this Emmy season’s great sentimental narratives. Monday may belong to Ford.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Hannah Einbinder, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

Kate O’Flynn, ‘Widow’s Bay’ [Apple TV] – Will Win

Jessica Williams, ‘Shrinking’ [Apple TV]

Michelle Pfeiffer, ‘Margo’s Got Money Troubles’ [Apple TV]

Janelle James, ‘Abbott Elementary’ [ABC]

Megan Stalter, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max]

Dale Dickey, ‘Widow’s Bay’ [Apple TV]

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This race now looks different than it did before Creative Arts weekend.

Kate O’Flynn has Widow’s Bay momentum behind her, but she also shares the category with co-star Dale Dickey. Hackshas the opposite problem: Hannah Einbinder and Megan Stalter are both nominated.

Einbinder remains our preferred winner after helping define the central relationship that made Hacks work for its entire run. But if Widow’s Bay is having the kind of night its Creative Arts showing suggests, O’Flynn is exactly the sort of acting victory that comes with it.

LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Oscar Isaac, ‘Beef’ [Netflix] — Will Win

Matthew Rhys, ‘The Beast in Me’ [Netflix] – Wish Would Win

Jason Bateman, ‘Black Rabbit’ [Netflix]

Riz Ahmed, ‘Bait’ [Prime Video] – Wish Would Win

Charlie Hunnam, ‘Monster: The Ed Gein Story’ [Netflix]

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Matthew Rhys could very easily win two Emmys Monday night. Jason Bateman has won before. Charlie Hunnam has the transformation. Riz Ahmed wrote himself one of the most personal roles in the category.

Still, Oscar Isaac is starring in the limited series we think wins the top prize.

Isaac is rarely anything less than excellent, but Beef gives him precisely the kind of emotionally volatile material that awards voters respond to. If Netflix’s series wins big, this should be part of the package.

Ahmed remains our favorite of the field for Bait, a performance inseparable from the cultural and personal specificity of the series he created.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Sally Field, ‘Remarkably Bright Creatures’ [Netflix] — Will Win

Carey Mulligan, ‘Beef’ [Netflix] — Wish Would Win

Sarah Pidgeon, ‘Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette’ [FX/Hulu] — Wish Would Win

Claire Danes, ‘The Beast in Me’ [Netflix]

Sarah Snook, ‘All Her Fault’ [Peacock]

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This is the category most likely to make us look stupid.

Sally Field has the legend factor, and Remarkably Bright Creatures already won Outstanding Movie during Creative Arts weekend, which helps. Carey Mulligan has the Beef momentum. Sarah Snook has All Her Fault. Claire Danes has The Beast in Me. Sarah Pidgeon turned Love Story into a genuine showcase.

Field remains our prediction because Emmy voters have an opportunity to reward one of television and film’s great actors in a category without an overwhelming consensus favorite.

But Mulligan would be our ballot. Lindsay is entitled, brittle, cruel, wounded and frequently hilarious, and Mulligan never asks the audience to simplify her.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

David Harbour, ‘DTF St. Louis’ [HBO Max] — Will Win

Charles Melton, ‘Beef’ [Netflix] — Wish Would Win

Jason Bateman, ‘DTF St. Louis’ [HBO Max]

Nick Offerman, ‘Death by Lightning’ [Netflix]

Richard Gadd, ‘Half Man’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

Richard Jenkins, ‘DTF St. Louis’ [HBO Max]

Harbour already won this. The supporting acting categories in limited series moved to Creative Arts this year for the first time, and Harbour took it, beating co-star Jason Bateman. It was his first Emmy.

We are noting it here because the result reshapes how Monday’s limited-series race should be read, and because Melton would have been our ballot in a field where Beef is the stronger overall program.

REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM

‘The Traitors’ [Peacock] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ [MTV]

‘Survivor’ [CBS]

‘Top Chef’ [Bravo]

‘Dancing With the Stars’ [ABC]

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There is no reason to move.

The Traitors won six Creative Arts Emmys and continues to look like television’s new reality awards powerhouse. The production design, casting, editing and Alan Cumming of it all have transformed a reality competition into an Emmy event.

RuPaul’s Drag Race, Survivor, Top Chef and Dancing With the Stars are not weak competition. The Traitors is simply operating at another level right now.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Linda Cardellini, ‘DTF St. Louis’ [HBO Max] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Laurie Metcalf, ‘Monster: The Ed Gein Story’ [Netflix]

Constance Zimmer, ‘Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette’ [FX/Hulu]

Youn Yuh-jung, ‘Beef’ [Netflix]

Dakota Fanning, ‘All Her Fault’ [Peacock]

Joy Sunday, ‘DTF St. Louis’ [HBO Max]

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Also already decided, and one of the weekend’s most satisfying results.

Cardellini has been doing award-worthy work across comedy and drama for decades, and DTF St. Louis finally gave her the kind of showcase Emmy voters could not overlook. It was her first Emmy as well.

The 78th Emmy Awards

The 2026 Emmy race is now in that strange middle stage where the nominations have answered some questions while creating several new ones. ‘The Pitt’ looks like the drama frontrunner, but ‘Pluribus’ has the kind of passion that can make a race interesting. ‘Hacks’ appears positioned for another major comedy win, but ‘Widow’s Bay’ is the new breakout with enough support to make voters think twice. ‘Beef’ feels strongest in limited series, though ‘DTF St. Louis’ has the talent, visibility and HBO Max campaign muscle to turn that category into a real fight.

The acting races are just as fascinating. Noah Wyle, Rhea Seehorn, Jean Smart, Harrison Ford, Oscar Isaac, Sally Field and Michael J. Fox all feel like strong early favorites, but the Emmys rarely move in a perfectly straight line. Vote-splitting, sentimental narratives, late campaign pushes and overall series momentum can reshape a category quickly.

That is what makes this part of awards season so fun. Predictions are not just about who has the most nominations. They are about reading the room, following the momentum and trying to figure out where voters are going to land once the noise quiets down. Some of these picks will probably hold all the way to Emmy night. Others will look completely different by the time final voting ends.

For now, this is where I think the race stands: a year led by ‘The Pitt,’ ‘Hacks,’ ‘Beef,’ ‘The Traitors’ and a very strong Apple TV bench, with more than enough room for surprises.

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