The Cinema Group’s Updated 2026 Emmy Awards Predictions: Who Will Win?

Our Editor-in-Chief provides his latest read on the 78th Emmy Awards, category by category.

NOTE FROM THE EDITOR: Final round voting for The 78th Primetime Emmys kicked off Monday and runs through Wednesday, August 26. Some voters lock in their ballots right away. Many wait until the last possible moment, using the extra time to catch up on the sheer volume of television packed into this year’s nominee list.

A lot has shifted since our last update a week ago. The Television Academy’s own Televerse event featured FYC presentations from a long list of nominees, including Abbott Elementary, All Her Fault, The Bear, Beef, Dancing with the Stars, The Diplomat, DTF St. Louis, Hacks, John Candy: I Like Me, Love Story, Miss You, Love You, The Muppet Show, Paradise, The Pitt, Pluribus, Remarkably Bright Creatures, RuPaul’s Drag Race, Shrinking, Summer House, Survivor, Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour — The Final Show, Top Chef, The Traitors, Widow’s Bay, and Your Friends & Neighbors.

Some platforms ran their own versions of the same push. HBO Max spent Sunday celebrating Hacks, its departing comedy that picked up 25 nominations this season, following a one-night-only Friday performance at the Fonda Theater called Deborah Vance & Friends & Enemies LIVE!, where the cast reprised their roles in front of a live audience for the first and only time.

Apple TV, meanwhile, is leaning hard into Widow’s Bay, its rookie comedy breakout. Lead actor Matthew Rhys has turned up everywhere from a pre-Emmys event hosted by Anonymous Content’s Darren Walker, to a haunted house party at the Culver Hotel, to a screening at Hollywood Forever Cemetery, to a sit-down with The New York Times’ The Interview podcast.

Other nominees making the rounds this week include Lisa Kudrow (The Comeback), Shawn Hatosy (The Pitt), Sarah Pidgeon (Love Story), Nick Offerman (Death by Lightning and Margo’s Got Money Troubles), and Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus).

PLEASE NOTE: These forecasts don’t reflect my personal preferences. My goal is to project what I think the Television Academy is most likely to do, not what I hope they’ll do. For added context, I’ve listed both my projected winner and my personal pick in every category, because half the fun of Emmy predictions is watching where the head and the heart disagree.

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Full Standings Across Dozens of Categories Follow Below:

DRAMA SERIES

‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max] — Will Win

‘Pluribus’ [Apple TV] — Wish Would Win

‘The Diplomat’ [Netflix]

‘Slow Horses’ [Apple TV]

‘Paradise’ [Hulu]

‘The Gilded Age’ [HBO Max]

‘A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms’ [HBO Max]

‘Your Friends & Neighbors’ [Apple TV]

This is probably ‘The Pitt’s’ race. It has the nomination strength, the acting support, the directing support and the kind of urgent ensemble storytelling that tends to win drama series. Still, ‘Pluribus’ would be the more exciting choice. Vince Gilligan returning with a bold, strange, original series is exactly the kind of swing television should be rewarding.

COMEDY SERIES

‘Hacks’ [HBO Max] — Will Win

‘Widow’s Bay’ [Apple TV] — Wish Would Win

‘Shrinking’ [Apple TV]

‘Abbott Elementary’ [ABC]

‘Margo’s Got Money Troubles’ [Apple TV]

‘The Bear’ [FX/Hulu]

‘Only Murders in the Building’ [Hulu]

‘Nobody Wants This’ [Netflix]

‘Hacks’ is still the safest prediction. The show has the narrative, the nomination haul and the industry love. But ‘Widow’s Bay’ becoming a first-season Emmy phenomenon is the kind of thing that makes awards races fun. A win would feel fresh, risky and very deserved.

LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES

‘Beef’ [Netflix] — Will Win

‘DTF St. Louis’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

‘Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette’ [FX/Hulu]

‘The Beast in Me’ [Netflix]

‘All Her Fault’ [Peacock]

‘Beef’ has the clearest path right now, especially with acting, writing and directing support behind it. But ‘DTF St. Louis’ is the kind of strange, star-driven HBO Max swing that would make for a more interesting winner.

TV MOVIE

‘Remarkably Bright Creatures’ [Netflix] — Will Win

‘Miss You, Love You’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

‘Tom Clancy’s Jack Ryan: Ghost War’ [Prime Video]

‘Heads of State’ [Prime Video]

‘People We Meet on Vacation’ [Netflix]

Netflix has the advantage with ‘Remarkably Bright Creatures,’ especially with Sally Field in the mix. Still, ‘Miss You, Love You’ feels like the more personal and emotionally resonant choice.

VARIETY SERIES

‘The Late Show With Stephen Colbert’ [CBS] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

‘Last Week Tonight With John Oliver’ [HBO Max]

‘Jimmy Kimmel Live!’ [ABC]

‘Saturday Night Live’ [NBC]

‘The Daily Show’ [Comedy Central]

This feels like the moment for ‘The Late Show.’ The farewell narrative is powerful, and the Television Academy may finally use this category to give Stephen Colbert the sendoff he deserves.

VARIETY SPECIAL LIVE

‘The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny’ [NBC] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

‘The Oscars’ [ABC]

‘68th Annual Grammy Awards’ [CBS]

‘78th Annual Tony Awards’ [CBS]

‘83rd Annual Golden Globe Awards’ [CBS]

The Bad Bunny halftime show has scale, spectacle and cultural dominance. It is the obvious winner, and honestly, the right one.

VARIETY SPECIAL PRE-RECORDED

‘Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour — The Final Show’ [Disney+] — Will Win

‘Nikki Glaser: Good Girl’ [Hulu] — Wish Would Win

‘Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable’ [Netflix]

‘Wicked: One Wonderful Night’ [NBC]

‘The Muppet Show’ [Disney+]

Taylor Swift is the biggest name in the category, and that may be enough. But Nikki Glaser’s special would be the sharper and more exciting win.

REALITY COMPETITION PROGRAM

‘The Traitors’ [Peacock] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

‘RuPaul’s Drag Race’ [MTV]

‘Survivor’ [CBS]

‘Top Chef’ [Bravo]

‘Dancing With the Stars’ [ABC]

‘The Traitors’ has become the new Emmy reality powerhouse. It is stylish, addictive, perfectly cast and anchored by Alan Cumming’s theatrical hosting. This is the correct prediction and the correct choice.

STRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM

‘Queer Eye’ [Netflix] — Will Win

‘Love Is Blind’ [Netflix]

‘Shark Tank’ [ABC]

‘Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives’ [Food Network] — Wish Would Win

‘Antiques Roadshow’ [PBS]

‘Queer Eye’ is the Emmy-friendly pick, but let’s be honest: giving an Emmy to ‘Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives’ would be a beautiful act of television justice.

UNSTRUCTURED REALITY PROGRAM

‘Love on the Spectrum’ [Netflix] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

‘Welcome to Wrexham’ [FX/Hulu]

‘RuPaul’s Drag Race: Untucked’ [MTV]

‘Summer House’ [Bravo]

‘America’s Sweethearts: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders’ [Netflix]

‘Love on the Spectrum’ remains the emotional favorite. ‘Welcome to Wrexham’ is strong, but this still feels like Netflix’s category.

ANIMATED PROGRAM

‘South Park’ [Comedy Central] — Will Win/ Wish Would Win

‘Bob’s Burgers’ [FOX] —

‘The Simpsons’ [FOX]

‘Star Wars: Visions’ [Disney+]

‘Rick and Morty’ [Adult Swim]

‘Smiling Friends’ [Adult Swim]

‘South Park’ is the likely winner, but ‘Bob’s Burgers’ remains one of TV’s most consistently warm and funny animated series. A win there would feel better.

GAME SHOW

‘Jeopardy!’ [Syndicated] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

‘Who Wants to Be a Millionaire’ [ABC]

‘Celebrity Family Feud’ [ABC]

‘Wheel of Fortune’ [Syndicated]

‘The Price Is Right’ [CBS]

It is hard to argue against ‘Jeopardy!’ here. The show remains the prestige pick of the category.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Noah Wyle, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Mark Ruffalo, ‘Task’ [HBO Max]

Sterling K. Brown, ‘Paradise’ [Hulu]

Gary Oldman, ‘Slow Horses’ [Apple TV] Wish Would Win

Rufus Sewell, ‘The Diplomat’ [Netflix]

This is Noah Wyle’s to lose. It is the kind of full-circle Emmy moment voters love, and the performance is strong enough to justify the narrative.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Rhea Seehorn, ‘Pluribus’ [Apple TV] — Will Win

Keri Russell, ‘The Diplomat’ [Netflix]

Zendaya, ‘Euphoria’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

Carrie Coon, ‘The Gilded Age’ [HBO Max]

Chase Infiniti, ‘The Testaments’ [Hulu]

Rhea Seehorn has been overdue for years, and ‘Pluribus’ finally gives voters the chance to correct that. Keri Russell and Zendaya are real threats, but Seehorn feels like the heart pick and the smart pick.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Tom Pelphrey, ‘Task’ [HBO Max] — Will Win

Patrick Ball, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

Billy Crudup, ‘The Morning Show’ [Apple TV]

Jack Lowden, ‘Slow Horses’ [Apple TV]

Shawn Hatosy, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

Carlos-Manuel Vesga, ‘Pluribus’ [Apple TV]

Gerran Howell, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

Tom Pelphrey is the safest prediction, especially if voters want to reward ‘Task’ somewhere major. But Shewn Hatosy would be a terrific win and a strong way to recognize ‘The Pitt’s’ ensemble and his years of consistent Character acting that has never Disappointed.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Sepideh Moafi, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max] — Will Win

Katherine LaNasa, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

Karolina Wydra, ‘Pluribus’ [Apple TV]

Julianne Nicholson, ‘Paradise’ [Hulu]

Allison Janney, ‘The Diplomat’ [Netflix]

Taylor Dearden, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

Fiona Dourif, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

This category could split hard because of all the ‘Pitt’ support, but Sepideh Moafi feels like the strongest prediction but the most satisfying winner would be Katherine LaNasa.

LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Matthew Rhys, ‘Widow’s Bay’ [Apple TV] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Jason Segel, ‘Shrinking’ [Apple TV]

Martin Short, ‘Only Murders in the Building’ [Hulu]

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, ‘Wonder Man’ [Disney+]

Steve Carell, ‘Rooster’ [HBO Max]

Matthew Rhys winning for a strange Apple TV horror-comedy would be one of the cooler outcomes of the night. Jason Segel is close, but Rhys has the edge and Widows bay has all the momentum.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Jean Smart, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max] — Will Win

Lisa Kudrow, ‘The Comeback’ [HBO Max]

Elle Fanning, ‘Margo’s Got Money Troubles’ [Apple TV] — Wish Would Win

Quinta Brunson, ‘Abbott Elementary’ [ABC]

Ayo Edebiri, ‘The Bear’ [FX/Hulu]

Jean Smart is still the favorite, because Jean Smart is Jean Smart. But Elle Fanning is equally deserving for her role in Margo’s Got Money Troubles which was absolutely incredible, and a beautiful take on a very nuanced Adaptation.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Harrison Ford, ‘Shrinking’ [Apple TV] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Stephen Root, ‘Widow’s Bay’ [Apple TV]

Nick Offerman, ‘Margo’s Got Money Troubles’ [Apple TV]

Paul W. Downs, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max]

Michael Urie, ‘Shrinking’ [Apple TV]

Tyler James Williams, ‘Abbott Elementary’ [ABC]

Colman Domingo, ‘The Four Seasons’ [Netflix]

Harrison Ford has never won an Emmy, and ‘Shrinking’ gives voters the perfect opportunity. This feels like one of the night’s most likely acting wins.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Hannah Einbinder, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

Kate O’Flynn, ‘Widow’s Bay’ [Apple TV] – Will Win

Jessica Williams, ‘Shrinking’ [Apple TV]

Michelle Pfeiffer, ‘Margo’s Got Money Troubles’ [Apple TV]

Janelle James, ‘Abbott Elementary’ [ABC]

Megan Stalter, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max]

Dale Dickey, ‘Widow’s Bay’ [Apple TV]

If ‘Hacks’ is having the night we expect, Hannah Einbinder should finally win. It feels earned.

LEAD ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Oscar Isaac, ‘Beef’ [Netflix] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Matthew Rhys, ‘The Beast in Me’ [Netflix]

Jason Bateman, ‘Black Rabbit’ [Netflix]

Riz Ahmed, ‘Bait’ [Prime Video]

Charlie Hunnam, ‘Monster: The Ed Gein Story’ [Netflix]

Oscar Isaac is the current frontrunner, especially if ‘Beef’ is winning limited series. This is one of the cleaner limited acting races.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Sally Field, ‘Remarkably Bright Creatures’ [Netflix] — Will Win

Carey Mulligan, ‘Beef’ [Netflix]

Sarah Pidgeon, ‘Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette’ [FX/Hulu] — Wish Would Win

Claire Danes, ‘The Beast in Me’ [Netflix]

Sarah Snook, ‘All Her Fault’ [Peacock]

Sally Field is the likely Emmy choice. But Carey Mulligan winning as part of a broader ‘Beef’ wave would be the more exciting outcome.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

David Harbour, ‘DTF St. Louis’ [HBO Max] — Will Win

Charles Melton, ‘Beef’ [Netflix]

Jason Bateman, ‘DTF St. Louis’ [HBO Max]

Nick Offerman, ‘Death by Lightning’ [Netflix]

Richard Gadd, ‘Half Man’ [HBO Max] — Wish Would Win

Richard Jenkins, ‘DTF St. Louis’ [HBO Max]

David Harbour is the current prediction, but Charles Melton would be the more inspired choice if voters really respond to ‘Beef.’

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOVIE

Linda Cardellini, ‘DTF St. Louis’ [HBO Max] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Laurie Metcalf, ‘Monster: The Ed Gein Story’ [Netflix]

Constance Zimmer, ‘Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette’ [FX/Hulu]

Youn Yuh-jung, ‘Beef’ [Netflix]

Dakota Fanning, ‘All Her Fault’ [Peacock]

Joy Sunday, ‘DTF St. Louis’ [HBO Max]

Linda Cardellini has been deserving of a major Emmy moment for a long time. This could finally be it.

GUEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Colman Domingo, ‘Euphoria’ [HBO Max] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Bradley Whitford, ‘The Diplomat’ [Netflix]

Jonathan Pryce, ‘Slow Horses’ [Apple TV]

Jeff Kober, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

Ernest Harden Jr., ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

Jeff Hiller, ‘Pluribus’ [Apple TV]

Colman Domingo is difficult to bet against, especially in a role voters have already responded to.

GUEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Shailene Woodley, ‘Paradise’ [Hulu] — Will Win

Miriam Shor, ‘Pluribus’ [Apple TV] — Wish Would Win

Tal Anderson, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

Brittany Allen, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

Merritt Wever, ‘The Gilded Age’ [HBO Max]

Tina Ivlev, ‘The Pitt’ [HBO Max]

Shailene Woodley has the name recognition and the showcase. But Miriam Shor winning for ‘Pluribus’ would be a much more satisfying pick.

GUEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Michael J. Fox, ‘Shrinking’ [Apple TV] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Rob Reiner, ‘The Bear’ [FX/Hulu]

Connor Storrie, ‘Saturday Night Live’ [NBC]

Hamish Linklater, ‘Widow’s Bay’ [Apple TV]

Christopher McDonald, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max]

Brett Goldstein, ‘Shrinking’ [Apple TV]

Michael J. Fox feels like the emotional favorite and the likely winner. Rob Reiner’s posthumous nomination is deeply meaningful, but Fox has the clearer path.

GUEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Kaitlin Olson, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max] — Will Win / Wish Would Win

Betty Gilpin, ‘Widow’s Bay’ [Apple TV]

Jamie Lee Curtis, ‘The Bear’ [FX/Hulu]

Laurie Metcalf, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max]

Cherry Jones, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max]

Leslie Bibb, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max]

Lauren Weedman, ‘Hacks’ [HBO Max]

Kaitlin Olson has the show strength and the performance. Betty Gilpin is the upset threat if voters are deeper into ‘Widow’s Bay’ than expected.

The 78th Emmy Awards

The 2026 Emmy race is now in that strange middle stage where the nominations have answered some questions while creating several new ones. ‘The Pitt’ looks like the drama frontrunner, but ‘Pluribus’ has the kind of passion that can make a race interesting. ‘Hacks’ appears positioned for another major comedy win, but ‘Widow’s Bay’ is the new breakout with enough support to make voters think twice. ‘Beef’ feels strongest in limited series, though ‘DTF St. Louis’ has the talent, visibility and HBO Max campaign muscle to turn that category into a real fight.

The acting races are just as fascinating. Noah Wyle, Rhea Seehorn, Jean Smart, Harrison Ford, Oscar Isaac, Sally Field and Michael J. Fox all feel like strong early favorites, but the Emmys rarely move in a perfectly straight line. Vote-splitting, sentimental narratives, late campaign pushes and overall series momentum can reshape a category quickly.

That is what makes this part of awards season so fun. Predictions are not just about who has the most nominations. They are about reading the room, following the momentum and trying to figure out where voters are going to land once the noise quiets down. Some of these picks will probably hold all the way to Emmy night. Others will look completely different by the time final voting ends.

For now, this is where I think the race stands: a year led by ‘The Pitt,’ ‘Hacks,’ ‘Beef,’ ‘The Traitors’ and a very strong Apple TV bench, with more than enough room for surprises.

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