How Will Beloved Breakouts Like The Pitt, Adolescence, The Studio Will Fare Against Severance, The White Lotus, And The Bear At Tv’s Biggest Awards? Our Initial Predictions Below.

Everywhere you look in our 2025 Emmy predictions, there’s something new. The Emmys often get criticized for playing it safe, repeatedly awarding the same shows year after year. But thanks to industry shakeups, shifting audience tastes, and the rise of streaming fragmentation, this year’s race feels like a rare reset. Breakout series like The Pitt, Adolescence, and The Studio are poised to shake up the status quo. They bring with them new voices, fresh storytelling structures, and a sense that TV—despite all odds—is still evolving in thrilling ways.

These shows will go toe-to-toe with beloved returning hits like Severance, The White Lotus, and Hacks when the Emmy nominations are revealed on July 15. The Television Academy, which comprises thousands of working actors, directors, writers, and crew, will determine which of these contenders will walk away with television’s highest honor when the ceremony airs this September.

Below, The Cinema Group’s full slate of predictions—across all major categories—captures the shape of TV’s most unpredictable awards season in years.

COMEDY SERIES

Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Hacks
Nobody Wants This
Only Murders in the Building
Shrinking
The Studio
What We Do in the Shadows

The Bear returns (pun intended) as a top contender, but the heat is on with The Studio delivering one of the most meta, razor-sharp Hollywood satires in recent memory. Nobody Wants This has been a breakout, and the second season of Shrinking has brought serious momentum thanks to Harrison Ford’s standout performance. Hacks and Only Murders remain favorites among voters, and don’t count out What We Do in the Shadows for its consistency. Abbott Elementary remains the feel-good, crowd-pleasing anchor.— Jonathan P. Moustakas

TCG Prediction: The Studio

ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Jean Smart, Hacks

Kristen Bell finally gets her due with a performance that masterfully blends comedic neurosis and pathos. Quinta Brunson remains a powerhouse in a now-iconic role, while Ayo Edebiri continues to be the genre’s breakout star. Selena Gomez elevates her game, showing growth and subtlety, and Jean Smart is, as always, a commanding Emmy force. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This

ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
Seth Rogen, The Studio
Jason Segel, Shrinking
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Adam Brody turns in a career-best performance that expertly mines his blend of charm and awkward energy. Seth Rogen is magnetic in The Studio, a role that taps his comedic roots and newfound dramatic range. Jason Segel deepens his character with nuance, Martin Short continues to delight, and Jeremy Allen White remains a critics’ darling. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Seth Rogen, The Studio

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Ike Barinholtz, The Studio
Paul W. Downs, Hacks
Harrison Ford, Shrinking
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear
Michael Urie, Shrinking
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live

Ike Barinholtz brings the laughs while grounding The Studio in real-world absurdity. Paul W. Downs continues to earn laughs and pathos. Harrison Ford delivers comedic gravitas. Ebon Moss-Bachrach still sears, though he faces tougher competition this year. Michael Urie dazzles, Tyler James Williams charms, and Bowen Yang stays a standout on SNL. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Ike Barinholtz, The Studio

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Kathryn Hahn, The Studio
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Catherine O’Hara, The Studio
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary
Megan Stalter, Hacks

Liza Colón-Zayas’s “Napkins” remains unforgettable—a showcase of quiet devastation. Hannah Einbinder is sharper than ever. Kathryn Hahn brings delicious chaos to The Studio. Janelle James and Sheryl Lee Ralph are both in top form. Catherine O’Hara makes her long-awaited return. Megan Stalter delivers career-best work, pushing Hacks forward. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Liza Colón-Zayas, The Bear

WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES

Abbott Elementary, “Back to School”
The Bear, “Napkins”
Hacks, “A Slippery Slope”
Only Murders in the Building, “Once Upon a Time in the West”
The Studio, “The Promotion”
What We Do in the Shadows, “The Finale”

Each nominee showcases a distinct voice, but “The Promotion” from The Studio stands above. It perfectly captures the industry skewering tone with biting humor. The Bear’s “Napkins” is intimate and devastating. Hacks delivers punchy wit, and Abbott continues to blend heart with social satire. Shadows and Only Murders both stay inventive. —JPM

TCG Prediction: The Studio, “The Promotion”

DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES

Lucia Aniello, Hacks (“A Slippery Slope”)
Nathan Fielder, The Rehearsal (“Pilot’s Code”)
Seth Rogen & Evan Goldberg, The Studio (“The Oner”)
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (“Napkins”)
Christopher Storer, The Bear (“Tomorrow”)
James Burrows, Mid-Century Modern (“Here’s to You, Mrs. Schneiderman”)

This year’s directing race is packed with creative vision. Ayo Edebiri stuns with her directorial debut, balancing intimacy and power. Storer crafts another haunting entry, while Rogen and Goldberg's "Oner" dazzles with ambition. Aniello and Burrows remain pros, but Edebiri owns the moment with "Napkins." —JPM

TCG Prediction: Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (“Napkins”)

DRAMA SERIES

Andor
The Diplomat
The Last of Us
Paradise
The Pitt
Severance
Slow Horses
The White Lotus

This category is stacked with returning powerhouses and breakout upstarts. Severance roars back with urgency, The White Lotus remains a prestige juggernaut, and The Pitt rewrites the rules of network drama. Paradise and The Diplomat are dark horses, but it's a photo finish between the top three. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Severance, The Pitt, or The White Lotus (too close to call)

ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Kathy Bates, Matlock
Britt Lower, Severance
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat

Britt Lower anchors Severance with a gravity that few can match. Moss and Russell remain forces of nature. Ramsey continues to prove their range beyond genre constraints. Kathy Bates commands with effortless authority in Matlock. A deeply competitive field with Lower just edging ahead. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Britt Lower, Severance

ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us
Adam Scott, Severance
Noah Wyle, The Pitt

Noah Wyle’s comeback is undeniable, bringing both nostalgia and fresh urgency to The Pitt. Sterling K. Brown delivers heart and complexity, while Scott and Pascal deepen already layered roles. Oldman continues to show why he's one of the greats. Still, this is Wyle’s moment. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Noah Wyle, The Pitt

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Walton Goggins, The White Lotus
John Turturro, Severance
Tramell Tillman, Severance
Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus
Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus
Patrick Schwarzenegger, The White Lotus
Jack Lowden, Slow Horses

This could be the most White Lotus-heavy category yet. Rockwell and Goggins are irresistible. Turturro and Tillman anchor Severance with gravitas and edge. Lowden is underrated but brilliant. Ultimately, Tillman’s rise and Goggins’s impact are hard to deny. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Tramell Tillman, Severance; Walton Goggins or Sam Rockwell, The White Lotus

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Carrie Coon, The White Lotus
Taylor Dearden, The Pitt
Allison Janney, The Diplomat
Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt
Parker Posey, The White Lotus
Natasha Rothwell, The White Lotus
Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus

Aimee Lou Wood lights up the screen in The White Lotus, while Parker Posey delivers peak meme-worthy brilliance. Carrie Coon and Natasha Rothwell both ground their roles in gravitas. Janney stuns in a limited arc, and The Pitt's Dearden and LaNasa add fresh dimension. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Aimee Lou Wood or Parker Posey, The White Lotus

WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

Andor (“Welcome to the Rebellion”)
The Diplomat (“Dreadnought”)
The Last of Us (“Through the Valley”)
Severance (“Cold Harbor”)
Slow Horses (“Hello Goodbye”)
The White Lotus (“Full-Moon Party”)

Cold and sharp, "Cold Harbor" exemplifies why Severance remains the smartest show on TV. Andor is thoughtful, The Diplomat tight, and The Last of Us heartfelt. The White Lotus and Slow Horses both blend elegance and punch, but Severance leads. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Severance (“Cold Harbor”)

DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

Andor, Janus Metz (“Who Are You?”)
The Last of Us, Mark Mylod (“Through the Valley”)
The Pitt, John Wells (“7:00 A.M.”)
Severance, Ben Stiller (“Cold Harbor”)
Severance, Jessica Lee Gagné (“Chikhai Bardo”)
Slow Horses, Adam Randall (“Hello Goodbye”)
The White Lotus, Mike White (“Amor Fati”)

Severance dominates direction, with Stiller as the visionary leading the charge. Jessica Lee Gagné's episode is a close second. John Wells gives The Pitt an early-morning adrenaline jolt, and Mike White remains meticulous. But "Cold Harbor" reigns supreme. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Severance, Ben Stiller (“Cold Harbor”)

LIMITED SERIES

Adolescence
Dying for Sex
Say Nothing
The Penguin
Presumed Innocent

Say Nothing Adolescence is the one to beat—visceral, brave, and timely. The Penguin is prestige noir. Dying for Sex balances tone expertly. Presumed Innocent brings courtroom heat, and Say Nothing quietly grows. But Adolescence has the most awards heat behind it. —JPM

Stephen Graham and Owen Cooper in ‘Adolescence’ **Ben Blackall/Netflix**

TCG Prediction: Adolescence

ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex
Cristin Milioti, The Penguin
Cate Blanchett, Disclaimer
Renée Zellweger, Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy
Lola Petticrew, Say Nothing

Cristin Milioti is overdue, and The Penguin offers a career-defining role. Michelle Williams remains a prestige favorite. Blanchett and Zellweger bring Oscar gravity, while Petticrew is this year’s surprise gem. But Milioti captures the moment. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Cristin Milioti, The Penguin

ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Colin Farrell, The Penguin
Stephen Graham, Adolescence
Brian Tyree Henry, Dope Thief
Kevin Kline, Disclaimer
Cooper Koch, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story

Farrell and Graham are neck-and-neck. Henry shines in a subtle turn, Kline exudes gravitas, and Koch surprises. But between Farrell’s intensity and Graham’s vulnerability, this is a race of titans. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Colin Farrell, The Penguin or Stephen Graham, Adolescence

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Javier Bardem, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Owen Cooper, Adolescence
Rob Delaney, Dying for Sex
Rhenzy Feliz, The Penguin
Peter Sarsgaard, Presumed Innocent
Ashley Walters, Adolescence

Owen Cooper emerges as the Emmy breakout of the year. Bardem brings heavyweight presence, Delaney finds depth in comedy, and Sarsgaard leans into his villainy. Feliz and Walters add humanity. But Cooper owns this moment. —JPM

Erin Doherty and Owen Cooper in ‘Adolescence’ **Ben Blackall/Netflix**

TCG Prediction: Owen Cooper, Adolescence

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Erin Doherty, Adolescence
Cristin Milioti, Black Mirror
Deirdre O’Connell, The Penguin
Jenny Slate, Dying for Sex
Chloë Sevigny, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story
Christine Tremarco, Adolescence

Erin Doherty and Christine Tremarco turn Adolescence into an acting clinic. Milioti and Slate are both scene-stealers. O’Connell is grounded and sincere. Sevigny elevates her material. But Doherty captures raw teenage turmoil like no one else. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Erin Doherty, Adolescence

WRITING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Adolescence
Dying for Sex (“Good Value Diet Soda”)
The Penguin (“A Great or Little Thing”)
Presumed Innocent (“Bases Loaded”)
Say Nothing (“The People in the Dirt”)

Adolescence is fully authored in voice and vision, and it shows. The Penguin is sharp. Say Nothing gains momentum from WGA love. Dying for Sex is moving and unconventional. But Adolescence is the whole package. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Adolescence

POPULAR ON THE CINEMA GROUP

DIRECTING FOR A LIMITED SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Adolescence, Philip Barantini
Disclaimer, Alfonso Cuarón
Dying for Sex (“It’s Not That Serious”), Shannon Murphy
Mountainhead, Jesse Armstrong
The Penguin (“After Hours”), Craig Zobel

Barantini's handheld chaos is the perfect frame for Adolescence. Cuarón and Armstrong are both precision craftsmen. Murphy strikes a tone few could manage, and Zobel remains underrated. But Barantini makes his mark. —JPM

PHILIP BARANTINI AND OWEN COOPER ON THE SET OF ‘ADOLESCENCE’ **SOURCE: NETFLIX**

TCG Prediction: Adolescence, Philip Barantini

COMPETITION PROGRAM

The Amazing Race
RuPaul’s Drag Race
Survivor
Top Chef
The Traitors

The Traitors redefined reality this year, with cinematic tension and a fresh take on format. Survivor roared back. Drag Race and Top Chef are icons. But The Traitors is undeniable. —JPM

TCG Prediction: The Traitors

REALITY HOST

RuPaul Charles, RuPaul's Drag Race
Alan Cumming, The Traitors
Kristen Kish, Top Chef
Jeff Probst, Survivor
The Sharks, Shark Tank

Alan Cumming is this year’s MVP—dramatic, stylish, and delightfully extra. Mark Cuban’s exit gives the Sharks a farewell boost. RuPaul still commands, but Cumming edges ahead. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Alan Cumming, The Traitors or The Sharks, Shark Tank (Mark Cuban)

SCRIPTED VARIETY SERIES

Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
Saturday Night Live

There’s simply no competition. John Oliver’s weekly essays continue to influence discourse. SNL gets the nomination, but Oliver gets the win. —JPM

TCG Prediction: Last Week Tonight With John Oliver

VARIETY TALK SERIES

The Daily Show
Jimmy Kimmel Live!
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert

The Daily Show still leads with insight and versatility, but Colbert is the one show that blends comedy, class, and consistency at the highest level. —JPM

TCG Prediction: The Late Show With Stephen Colbert

If the 2025 Emmys prove anything, it’s that television is undergoing a seismic shift. No longer defined solely by legacy titles or platform prestige, this year’s contenders reflect a more diverse, risk-taking, and creatively ambitious industry. Shows like The Pitt, Adolescence, and The Studio aren’t just filling out nomination lists—they’re actively redefining what modern prestige TV looks like.

With returning giants like The White Lotus, Severance, and The Bear still in the mix, we’re entering an awards race that feels both familiar and completely new. Whether the Television Academy chooses to reward innovation, nostalgia, or cultural impact, one thing is clear: the era of predictable winners is over.

We’ll be watching closely on Emmy night—not just to see who wins, but to see what it says about the future of the medium.