Oscar Race Heats Up as ‘Anora’ Secures Front-Runner Status with PGA, DGA, and Critics Choice Wins

The Academy Awards are fast approaching, and with just weeks to go before Hollywood’s biggest night, the race for Best Picture has taken a dramatic turn. After months of uncertainty and a season filled with surprises, Anora has emerged as the undisputed front-runner following a weekend of major wins at three of the most influential industry awards: the Producers Guild of America (PGA), the Directors Guild of America (DGA), and the Critics Choice Awards. While the Best Picture race has been unusually fluid this year, these victories have provided Anora with a crucial boost of momentum just as Oscar voting begins.

This awards season has been anything but predictable. Early on, Emilia Pérez appeared to be a dominant force after securing a leading 13 Oscar nominations and taking home multiple Golden Globe wins. However, the controversy surrounding its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, has cast a shadow over its campaign, leaving an opening for other contenders to gain ground. Meanwhile, films like The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Conclave have each had moments of strength, but none have been able to break away from the pack—until now.

The triple win by Anora at Critics Choice, PGA, and DGA is a significant shift in the race, as these awards have historically aligned with the Academy’s preferences. The PGA winner has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar in all but three cases since 2009, and 18 of the last 20 DGA winners have also taken home the Best Director Oscar. With Anorasecuring both, it now finds itself in a commanding position as the final stretch of awards season begins.

As we enter the decisive weeks leading up to the Oscars, the question is no longer whether Anora is a serious contender—it’s whether any other film still has the ability to challenge its newfound dominance. With BAFTA and SAG Awards looming, the last opportunities for a major upset are on the horizon, but right now, Anora is standing strong as the film to beat.

A Weekend of Victories: How ‘Anora’ Took the Lead

Sean Baker accepts a Directors Guild of America Feature Film Medallion for ‘Anora’ Getty Images for DGA

Heading into last weekend, Anora was considered a strong contender but not necessarily the favorite. While Sean Baker’s indie sensation had gained critical praise since winning the Palme d’Or at Cannes, it was overshadowed by Emilia Pérez, which led the Oscar nominations with 13 nods and previously claimed the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy. However, the tide has turned.

On Friday, Anora won Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards, an organization that has historically mirrored the Academy’s preferences. But it was on Saturday night that the film truly took center stage, sweeping both the PGA and DGA Awards—two major indicators of Oscar success. Since 2009, the PGA winner has gone on to claim Best Picture at the Oscars all but three times. Meanwhile, 18 of the last 20 DGA winners have taken home the Best Director Oscar, making Baker’s victory a crucial moment in the race.

This kind of triple win—Critics Choice, PGA, and DGA—places Anora in an elite category of Oscar-winning films. It’s a feat achieved by The Shape of Water (2017), Nomadland (2020), and Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022), all of which converted their momentum into a Best Picture Oscar.

The Fall of ‘Emilia Pérez’? Controversy and Uncertainty

Jacques Audiard accepting DGA nomination medallion from Zoe Saldana Emma McIntyre/Getty Images for DGA

Just weeks ago, Emilia Pérez seemed like the likely Best Picture winner. It dominated the Golden Globes, picking up Best Picture (Musical or Comedy) and Best Supporting Actress for Selena Gomez. But the film’s awards campaign was rocked by controversy after old tweets from lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón resurfaced, sparking backlash. Gascón’s apology has done little to quell the controversy, and it remains to be seen whether this has damaged the film’s Oscar chances.

While Emilia Pérez still has strong support from the Academy’s international voters, its failure to win PGA or DGA suggests that momentum has shifted. The last film to win Best Picture without winning at PGA or DGA was Moonlight in 2016, but that was an unusual case of an industry split.

Looking Ahead: The Role of BAFTA and SAG

Jon M. Chu at the 30th Annual Critics Choice Awards held at The Barker Hangar on February 7, 2025 in Santa Monica, California. (Photo by JC Olivera/Variety via Getty Images) JC Olivera

The next major awards ceremonies, the BAFTAs and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, could further shape the race. BAFTA voters have historically favored British productions, but Anora remains a strong contender there. Conclave, with its impressive 12 BAFTA nominations, could emerge as a dark horse, especially after Edward Berger led All Quiet on the Western Front to a surprise victory two years ago.

Meanwhile, the SAG Awards—taking place just two days before Oscar voting closes—will be a major test for Anora. If it wins Outstanding Cast, it will be nearly unstoppable for Best Picture. However, a loss could signal a shift in the race. Wicked leads the SAG nominations and could surprise, much like Parasite did in 2019.

Best Actor and Best Actress: Who Has the Edge?

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With Anora gaining momentum, its star Mikey Madison is now a legitimate threat to win Best Actress. But she faces stiff competition from Golden Globe winner Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), whose performance has captivated international voters despite not being nominated at SAG or BAFTA. While SAG will be crucial in determining whether Madison can overtake Torres, this category remains one of the most unpredictable of the night.

For Best Actor, Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) remains the front-runner after winning at Critics Choice and the Golden Globes. However, Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) and Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) are still in the conversation, particularly with BAFTA and SAG votes yet to be counted. If Brody wins SAG, he will likely secure his second career Oscar. But if SAG goes to Chalamet or Fiennes, we could see a late shake-up in the race.

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Final Thoughts: Can ‘Anora’ Keep the Momentum?

(L-R) 'Anora's Vache Tovmasyan, Alex Coco, Sean Baker, Mikey Madison and Samantha Quan onstage Friday at Critics Choice. Kevin Winter/Getty Images for Critics Choice Association

While past Oscar races have seen late shifts—think Saving Private Ryan losing to Shakespeare in Love or La La Landlosing to Moonlight—the compressed voting timeline for this year’s Oscars means momentum is everything. Right now, Anora is peaking at the perfect time.

If it wins BAFTA and SAG, it will all but guarantee victory on Oscar night. But if another contender, like Conclave or Emilia Pérez, makes a late surge, we could be in for one of the closest Best Picture races in years.

As we head into the final stretch, one thing is certain: this year’s Oscars are shaping up to be one of the most fascinating in recent memory.

the list of PGA & DGA Winners

PGA Winners

Film

• Feature Film: Anora

• Animated Feature: The Wild Robot

• Documentary: Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story

Television

• Episodic Drama: Shogun

• Episodic Comedy: Hacks

• Limited or Anthology Series: Baby Reindeer

• Television Movie or Streamed Movie: The Greatest Night in Pop

• Nonfiction Television: STEVE! (martin) a documentary in 2 pieces

• Live, Variety, Sketch, Stand-up or Talk Show: Saturday Night Live

• Game or Competition Show: The Traitors

• Sports Program: Simone Biles Rising

• Children’s Program: Sesame Street

• Short-Form Program: Succession: Controlling the Narrative

DGA Winners

Film

• Feature: Sean Baker, Anora

• First-Time Feature: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

• Documentary: Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev, Porcelain War

Television

• Drama Series: Shogun, Frederick E.O. Toye

• Comedy Series: Hacks, Lucia Aniello

• Television Movies and Limited Series: Ripley, Steven Zaillian

Keep reading for a complete list of winners from the 2025 DGA Awards.

THEATRICAL FEATURE FILM

JACQUES AUDIARD – “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

WINNER SEAN BAKER – “Anora” (Neon)

EDWARD BERGER – “Conclave” (Focus Features)

BRADY CORBET – “The Brutalist” (A24)

JAMES MANGOLD – “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)

MICHAEL APTED FIRST-TIME THEATRICAL FEATURE FILM

PAYAL KAPADIA – “All We Imagine as Light” (Sideshow & Janus Films)

MEGAN PARK – “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM Studios)

WINNER RAMELL ROSS – “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios)

HALFDAN ULLMANN TØNDEL – “Armand” (IFC Films)

SEAN WANG – “Dìdi” (Focus Features)

DRAMATIC SERIES

ALEX GRAVES
The Diplomat, “Dreadnought”
(Netflix)

HIROMI KAMATA
Shōgun, “Ladies of the Willow World”
(FX)

ISSA LÓPEZ
True Detective: Night Country, “Part 6”
(HBO)

WINNER FREDERICK E.O. TOYE
Shōgun, “Crimson Sky”
(FX)

JONATHAN VAN TULLEKEN
Shōgun, “Anjin”
(FX)

COMEDY SERIES

WINNER LUCIA ANIELLO
Hacks, “Bulletproof”
(Max)
Directorial Team:

AYO EDEBIRI

The Bear, “Napkins”
(FX)

DUCCIO FABBRI
The Bear, “Doors”
(FX)

JEFF SCHAFFER
Curb Your Enthusiasm, “No Lessons Learned”
(HBO)

CHRISTOPHER STORER
The Bear, “Tomorrow”
(FX)

MOVIES FOR TELEVISION AND LIMITED SERIES

KEVIN BRAY
The Penguin, “Top Hat”
(HBO)
Directorial Team:

ALFONSO CUARÓN
Disclaimer
(Apple TV+)

JENNIFER GETZINGER
The Penguin, “A Great or Little Thing”
(HBO)

HELEN SHAVER
The Penguin, “Cent’anni”
(HBO)

WINNER STEVEN ZAILLIAN
Ripley
(Netflix)

VARIETY/TALK/NEWS/SPORTS – REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING

PAUL G. CASEY
Real Time with Bill Maher, “Jiminy Glick, Andrew Cuomo, Adam Kinzinger”
(HBO)

JIM HOSKINSON
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, “Rep. Alexandria Ocasio‑Cortez & Mavis Staples w/ Jeff Tweedy”
(CBS)

DAVID PAUL MEYER
The Daily Show, “Indecision 2024: The Democratic National Convention ‑ Plot Twist!”
(Comedy Central)

WINNER LIZ PATRICK
Saturday Night Live, “John Mulaney / Chappell Roan”
(NBC)

PAUL PENNOLINO
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, “India Elections”
(HBO)

VARIETY/TALK/NEWS/SPORTS – SPECIALS

HAMISH HAMILTON
The 96th Annual Academy Awards
(ABC)

WINNER BETH McCARTHY‑MILLER
The Roast of Tom Brady
(Netflix)

DAVID PAUL MEYER
The Daily Show Presents A Live Election Night Special With Jon Stewart: Indecision 2024: Nothing We Can Do About It Now
(Comedy Central)

GLENN WEISS
The 77th Annual Tony Awards
(CBS)

ALI WONG
Ali Wong: Single Lady
(Netflix)

REALITY PROGRAMS

WINNER NEIL DeGROOT
Gordon Ramsay: Uncharted, “The Cliffs of Ireland”
(National Geographic)

JOSEPH GUIDRY
Deal Or No Deal Island, “Are You Decisive?”
(NBC)

ARI KATCHER
Jerrod Carmichael Reality Show, “Road Trip”
(HBO)

PATRICK McMANUS
American Ninja Warrior, “Las Vegas Finals 4”
(NBC)

MIKE SWEENEY
Conan O’Brien Must Go, “Ireland”
(Max)

CHILDREN’S PROGRAMS

KAT COIRO
The Spiderwick Chronicles, “Welcome to Spiderwick”
(Roku Channel)

MICHAEL GOI
Avatar: The Last Airbender, “Aang”
(Netflix)

JIM MICKLE
Sweet Tooth, “This Is a Story”
(Netflix)

JENNIFER PHANG
Descendants: The Rise of Red
(Disney+)

WINNER AMBER SEALEY
Out of My Mind
(Disney+)

COMMERCIALS

LANCE ACORD
(Park Pictures)
An American Love Story, Volkswagen ‑ Johannes Leonardo

KIM GEHRIG
(Somesuch)
A Life in Sound, SiriusXM – Uncommon

Am I A Bad Person?, Nike ‑ Wieden+Kennedy

Find Your Friends, Apple‑ Client Direct

TIM HEIDECKER & ERIC WAREHEIM
(Prettybird)
Michael CeraVe, CeraVe‑ WPP Onefluence (Ogilvy)

WINNER ANDREAS NILSSON
(Biscuit Filmworks)
Board Game, Hennessy‑ Wieden+Kennedy ‑ London
First Office Poo, Andrex‑ FCB ‑ London
One More, Apple ‑ Client Direct

Whizzer, Virgin Media ‑ VCCP ‑ London

IVAN ZACHARIÁŠ
(Smuggler)
Flock, Apple ‑ Media Arts Lab

DOCUMENTARY

WINNER BRENDAN BELLOMO & SLAVA LEONTYEV
Porcelain War
(Picturehouse)

JULIAN BRAVE NOISECAT & EMILY KASSIE
Sugarcane
(National Geographic)

JOHAN GRIMONPREZ
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
(Kino Lorber)  

IBRAHIM NASH’AT
Hollywoodgate
(Fourth Act Film)

NATALIE RAE & ANGELA PATTON
Daughters
(Netflix)

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