Box Office Preview: Michael Jackson Biopic ‘Michael’ Targets $65M–$70M U.S. Opening, Eyeing Music Biopic Record
LIONSGATE
Antoine Fuqua’s Michael is tracking toward a record-breaking domestic debut, with early projections placing it among the biggest music biopic openings ever.
Michael Jackson is heading back to the big screen in a major way — and the box office is responding.
Antoine Fuqua’s long-gestating biopic Michael is tracking toward a domestic opening weekend between $65 million and $70 million, positioning it to potentially set a new benchmark for the music biopic genre. If projections hold, the film would surpass Straight Outta Compton ($60.2 million) and Bohemian Rhapsody ($55 million) for the largest U.S. debut in the category, not adjusted for inflation.
The film, released by Lionsgate and produced by Graham King, stars Jaafar Jackson — Michael Jackson’s nephew — in the title role, with the project charting his early rise from the Jackson 5 to global superstardom. Early tracking shifts over the past several weeks suggest increasing audience interest, with the film’s domestic projection rising from an initial $55–$60 million range.
Industry analysts point to a combination of nostalgia and generational crossover appeal driving anticipation. While older audiences bring legacy awareness of Jackson’s catalog and cultural impact, younger viewers — particularly Gen Z — are seen as a key driver of theatrical interest in large-scale musical storytelling.
Internationally, Michael is expected to perform even stronger. Current projections estimate a global debut between $140 million and $165 million, with overseas markets contributing a significant portion of the opening weekend total. The film carries a reported production budget near $155 million, with additional costs from extended production work pushing total spend closer to $200 million.
However, critical reception has added a counterweight to box office optimism. The film currently holds a 33 percent score on Rotten Tomatoes, reflecting a divided critical response following early screenings.
The narrative surrounding the film has also been shaped by its production history and creative decisions. Initially conceived as a full-life biopic covering Jackson’s career in its entirety, the project shifted structure during development amid legal and narrative considerations tied to how certain real-world allegations would be addressed. The final film reportedly focuses primarily on Jackson’s rise through the Bad-era period, ending before the most controversial chapters of his later life.
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Critics have noted that structural choice in their reviews. As THR’s David Rooney wrote, the film avoids major revelations while instead emphasizing tone and performance, noting that it “taps into a vein of melancholy underlying the stratospheric success.” He also highlighted that the film effectively ends before addressing later controversies, with an epilogue card stating, “His story continues.”
Despite critical debate, history suggests the box office trajectory for Jackson-related projects remains strong. The 2009 concert documentary This Is It opened to $22 million domestically and ultimately grossed $267 million worldwide, becoming the highest-grossing music documentary of all time. Broadway’s MJ: The Musical has also sustained commercial success across multiple global runs, indicating continued audience appetite for Jackson-centered storytelling.
International distribution for Michael is being handled by Universal in most territories, with Japan expected to be a key market given Jackson’s enduring popularity there. The film also premiered earlier this year at the Berlin Film Festival, underscoring its global positioning ahead of release.
Domestically, Michael will begin Thursday preview screenings before expanding into more than 3,900 theaters on Friday, including 1,600 premium large-format and IMAX locations.
All eyes now turn to whether the film can convert anticipation — and controversy — into a historic box office debut.
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