With one of the most unpredictable awards seasons in recent memory, here are our predictions for every category at the 2026 Oscars.

Awards season has been unusually chaotic this year. Normally, by early March, the Oscar race begins to feel inevitable. The major precursor awards fall neatly into place, front-runners emerge, and the path to the Academy Awards becomes increasingly clear. That has not been the case in 2026.

Instead, the race has been defined by constant shifts in momentum, surprise wins, and a number of categories that remain genuinely competitive heading into Oscar night. Several acting races have seen their presumed favorites stumble at key moments, while the Best Picture conversation has evolved into a true two-film battle that could easily break either way.

At the center of that race is Paul Thomas Anderson’s sweeping American epic One Battle After Another, which has steadily accumulated major awards across the season, including wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTA Awards, and the Producers Guild Awards. Those victories would normally make it a clear Best Picture favorite.

But the surge of Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s ambitious and politically charged blockbuster, has complicated that narrative. The film’s ensemble victory at the Actor Awards, along with Michael B. Jordan’s late-season Best Actor win, has created the sense that Academy voters may be rallying around the film at precisely the right moment.

The Academy’s preferential ballot system only adds to the suspense. Because Best Picture winners are determined through ranked voting rather than simple plurality, a widely liked film that appears consistently in second or third place could ultimately overtake a more polarizing front-runner. In a year as volatile as this one, that dynamic makes predicting the winner even more difficult.

The acting categories are similarly unsettled. Best Actress appears to be the only race with a clear leader, while Best Actor remains particularly competitive, with Timothée Chalamet, Michael B. Jordan, and Wagner Moura all entering the final stretch with plausible paths to victory.

Elsewhere, several technical and craft categories appear more stable, while others—especially the newly introduced Best Casting award—remain difficult to forecast. With the 98th Academy Awards set to take place on March 15 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, hosted by Conan O’Brien,

here are our predictions for every category.

Best Picture

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

One Battle After Another

Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another

The biggest question heading into Oscar night is whether the Academy will ultimately favor the steady dominance of One Battle After Another or the surging enthusiasm surrounding Sinners. On paper, Anderson’s film holds the advantage. It has won the PGA Award, which historically aligns closely with Best Picture winners, and it has remained a consistent presence throughout the awards season.

Yet the cultural impact of Sinners cannot be ignored. The film has resonated with audiences worldwide and has earned massive support across industry guilds. With sixteen Oscar nominations—the highest total of the year—it has emerged as one of the defining films of the moment.

Still, history suggests that the film winning the Producers Guild Award often goes on to take Best Picture. That precedent gives Anderson’s film a narrow edge, even if the race remains extremely close.

Best Director

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson

After decades of nominations and near misses, Paul Thomas Anderson appears poised to finally win his first Academy Award for directing. His film has already secured victories at the BAFTA Awards, the Golden Globes, and the Directors Guild of America Awards—three of the most reliable indicators of Oscar success.

While Ryan Coogler’s work on Sinners remains formidable competition, Anderson’s career-long reputation and this film’s sweeping ambition make his victory feel inevitable.

Best Actress

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Predicted Winner: Jessie Buckley

In a season full of category chaos, this has been the steadiest race. Buckley’s performance has carried that “inevitable” feeling for months—emotionally devastating, technically precise, and universally praised even by people lukewarm on the film. When a contender is winning precursors and the conversation never really moves off them, that’s usually a lock. The only way this flips is if the Academy decides to spread the wealth and surprise everyone, and nothing about this category suggests they will.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Predicted Winner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Few actors have had the kind of awards-season momentum Timothée Chalamet built early on for Marty Supreme. His performance carries the kind of transformation and charisma that the Academy tends to gravitate toward in this category, and it has remained at the center of the conversation throughout the season. While Michael B. Jordan’s late surge for Sinners and Wagner Moura’s passionate support for The Secret Agent have made the race far more competitive than expected, Chalamet still holds the advantage thanks to his early wins and widespread admiration across the industry. If the Academy wants to crown the defining young movie star of his generation, this is the moment.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Predicted Winner: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

This feels like the kind of win the Academy makes when it wants to reward a film’s gravitational pull without giving it everything. Penn’s performance has the “scene-stealer with authority” energy voters respond to, and his late-season strength with key wins has created real inevitability. The danger here is a quieter, more universally liked performance sneaking through if Penn divides voters, but the precursors suggest he’s consolidated support. If One Battle doesn’t dominate the top prizes, this is one of its safest consolation lanes.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan, Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Predicted Winner: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Supporting Actress is the classic chaos category this year: multiple winners, multiple narratives, and no single performance owning the conversation for the entire season. Taylor has the advantage of being central to a film that’s broadly admired and of delivering the kind of performance that reads “Oscar clip” without feeling engineered. Mosaku and Madigan are both credible spoilers—especially if the Academy leans into a Sinners wave or decides to reward a more surprising, character-actor turn. In a true toss-up, I’m siding with the candidate whose film has the strongest overall ballot presence.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Train Dreams

One Battle After Another

Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another

This is where the Academy can finally put hardware in Paul Thomas Anderson’s hands without needing the Best Picture result to align. The adaptation argument is straightforward: the script feels authored, modernized, and structurally bold in a way that doesn’t sacrifice clarity or propulsion. None of the competing screenplays have the same combination of critical reverence and season-long inevitability. Even in an upset-heavy night, it’s hard to see PTA walking out empty.

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Predicted Winner: Sinners

If Sinners is going to collect major above-the-line awards, this is the cleanest category for it. Coogler’s screenplay is being treated as both crowd-pleasing and purposeful, which is exactly the Academy’s sweet spot when it wants to reward “big” filmmaking with something that still feels artist-driven. The category has strong alternatives, but the usual rule applies: when a Best Picture contender is also the hottest title of the moment, it tends to win its screenplay lane. If Sinnersloses here, it’s a sign the Academy is hedging hard against a sweep.

Best International Feature

The Secret Agent (Brazil)

It Was Just an Accident (France)

Sentimental Value (Norway)

Sirāt (Spain)

The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Predicted Winner: The Secret Agent

Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent has steadily built momentum throughout the awards season, becoming one of the most talked-about international films in the race. The Brazilian thriller blends political tension with stylish genre filmmaking in a way that has resonated strongly with critics and audiences alike. While Sentimental Value remains a formidable contender thanks to its broad nomination haul, The Secret Agent feels like the film with the strongest late-season enthusiasm. With the Academy’s increasingly international membership, a bold, globally resonant film like this could easily rise to the top on Oscar night.

Best Animated Feature

Arco

Elio

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Zootopia 2

KPop Demon Hunters

Predicted Winner: KPop Demon Hunters

This is one of those years where the winner feels like a cultural fact, not just an awards prediction. The film’s reach has been massive, and the Academy’s animation voting body has increasingly rewarded titles that are both widely seen and widely loved. The only real path to an upset is the traditional “industry respect” pick taking advantage of vote-splitting. But KPop Demon Hunters doesn’t feel like a split—it feels like a phenomenon, and the Oscars tend to reward phenomena when they’re also critically safe.

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution

Come See Me in the Good Light

Cutting Through Rocks

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

The Perfect Neighbor

Predicted Winner: The Perfect Neighbor

Documentary winners tend to come down to urgency plus visibility, and this film has both. It’s the kind of story Academy voters feel compelled to publicly stand behind, and it’s already proven it can win with precursors. The spoilers here are the films that feel formally daring or politically timely, but “timely” is not always enough—there has to be a consensus choice. Right now, this looks like the consensus.

Best Cinematography

Frankenstein

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Train Dreams

Predicted Winner: Sinners

This category often chooses between elegance and invention, and Sinners makes a strong case for both. There’s a visceral, crafted intentionality to the imagery that voters can recognize even outside technical circles, and the “this would be historic” narrative can genuinely matter when the work is undeniable. The main threat is One Battle After Another, which is exactly the kind of formally controlled prestige cinematography the Academy loves. If Sinners is having a big night, this becomes one of its most meaningful craft wins.

Best Film Editing

F1, Stephen Mirrione

Marty Supreme, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie

One Battle After Another, Andy Jurgensen

Sentimental Value, Olivier Bugge Coutté

Sinners, Michael P. Shawver

Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another

Editing is where the Academy rewards propulsion, clarity, and rhythm—especially in films that feel ambitious but never confusing. One Battle After Another has the cleanest “you can feel the craft” case: big sequences that still track emotionally, tonal pivots that land, and momentum that doesn’t sag. The spoiler is an editing showcase film that screams technique, but voters often default to the Best Picture heavyweight when the case is this strong. If One Battle wins Picture, it’s even more likely to win here.

Best Original Score

Bugonia, Jerskin Fendrix

Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat

Hamnet, Max Richter

One Battle After Another, Jonny Greenwood

Sinners, Ludwig Göransson

Predicted Winner: Sinners

When a film is fundamentally built around music, it tends to dominate the score conversation because the composition feels inseparable from the storytelling. Sinners has the kind of score voters remember after the credits, and “memorability” matters more than people admit in this category. The competition is serious—this is not a weak year—but the narrative advantage is real. If the Academy is feeling the Sinners wave, this is one of the easiest places to reward it.

Best Original Song

“Dear Me,” Diane Warren: Relentless

“Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters

“I Lied to You,” Sinners

“Sweet Dreams of Joy,” Viva Verdi!

“Train Dreams,” Train Dreams

Predicted Winner: “Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters

Sometimes the Oscar for song is about artistry, and sometimes it’s about a song being unavoidable. “Golden” has been unavoidable, and that’s a powerful thing when voters are filling out ballots at home with the track already living in their heads. The most credible spoiler is a “serious” song attached to a serious film, but the Academy has shown it’s comfortable rewarding pop-cultural dominance when it’s clean and beloved. This feels like one of the night’s simplest wins.

Best Costume Design

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Deborah L. Scott

Frankenstein, Kate Hawley

Hamnet, Malgosia TurzanskaMarty Supreme, Miyako Bellizzi

Sinners, Ruth E. Carter

Predicted Winner: Frankenstein

Costume wins often go to the film that builds the most complete, coherent world through clothing alone, and Frankensteinis exactly that kind of achievement. It’s lush, specific, and instantly legible—voters don’t need a deep craft vocabulary to understand how much work is on screen. The spoiler is a film like Sinners, where costumes are culturally and character-accurate in a way that feels contemporary and cool. But the Academy still leans period, still leans maximal, and Frankenstein hits both.

Best Production Design

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Predicted Winner: Frankenstein

This is the category where Guillermo del Toro–adjacent projects tend to feast because the worlds are so fully imagined they feel inhabitable. Production Design voters love density—layers of detail, texture, and intentional choices that reward rewatching. Frankenstein looks like a film you could pause anywhere and study, and that’s usually the winning profile. If there’s an upset, it comes from a Best Picture titan taking the category by ballot momentum, but Frankenstein has the clearest standalone case.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Predicted Winner: Frankenstein

Transformation is the Academy’s favorite language in makeup categories, and Frankenstein is built on transformation. Even when the work is subtle, voters often gravitate toward projects where the makeup is conceptually central and obviously difficult. The main spoiler is a film where makeup serves realism rather than spectacle, but realism rarely wins unless it’s also transformative. This feels like a “check the box” craft win that’s fully earned.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1

Jurassic World Rebirth

The Lost Bus

Sinners

Predicted Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

The easiest rule in Oscar predicting is not to bet against a franchise that basically exists to redefine the technology of movie spectacle. Even when the story conversation is noisy, the visual effects conversation tends to be unanimous. The only time Avatar loses is when something else becomes a once-in-a-generation effects achievement, and nothing in this field is being discussed that way. If you’re looking for a safe category, it’s this one.

Best Sound

F1

Frankenstein

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Sirāt

Predicted Winner: F1

Sound often goes to the film that makes the audience feel movement in their bones—engines, speed, impact, and the kind of immersive mix you notice even if you don’t think about sound design. F1 is built for that, and the Academy loves rewarding big, kinetic sonic experiences. The spoiler is a film where sound is more conceptual or musical, but conceptual sound wins less often than “you were there” sound. This feels tailor-made.

Best Casting

Hamnet, Nina Gold

Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti

One Battle After Another, Cassandra Kulukundis

The Secret Agent, Gabriel Domingues

Sinners, Francine Maisler

Predicted Winner: Sinners

New categories can be unpredictable because the Academy hasn’t yet developed a voting tradition, but the logic is still familiar: voters reward the ensemble that feels both surprising and essential. Sinners has that mix of star power and discovery, and it’s the film where casting is part of the cultural conversation, not just a behind-the-scenes credit. The strongest alternative is One Battle After Another, which also has the “how did they assemble this?” factor. But Sinnersfeels like the category’s best headline win.

Best Live-Action Short

Butcher’s Stain

A Friend of Dorothy

Jane Austen’s Period Drama

The Singers

Two People Exchanging Saliva

Predicted Winner: Two People Exchanging Saliva

Shorts are always the hardest to predict from the outside, but the winners tend to be the films that feel like they’re doing a full feature’s worth of world-building in a tiny runtime. This title has the hook voters remember, and memory matters because many voters watch shorts in batches. The other contenders may be more traditional or more sentimental, but the Academy often rewards the short that feels the most formally distinctive. In a category built on quick impressions, this is the one that lingers.

Best Animated Short

Butterfly

Forevergreen

The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Retirement Plan

The Three Sisters

Predicted Winner: Butterfly

Animated Short often rewards craft plus emotional clarity—the film that looks singular and lands cleanly in under fifteen minutes. Butterfly has the kind of visual identity voters can describe after one watch, which is a huge advantage in a stack of shorts. The spoilers are the shorts with famous names attached or the ones that feel classically “Oscar,” but those can split votes. The simplest read is that the most visually unforgettable short wins.

Best Documentary Short

All the Empty Rooms

Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”

The Devil Is Busy

Perfectly a Strangeness

Predicted Winner: All the Empty Rooms

This category is where urgency and accessibility collide. The Academy tends to reward doc shorts that deliver a clear, emotionally direct experience with a theme that feels immediate, especially if the film has visibility beyond the festival circuit. All the Empty Rooms sounds like the kind of piece voters will feel they’re making a statement by rewarding. In doc shorts, “statement” wins more often than “admiration.”

POPULAR ON THE CINEMA GROUP

What makes this year’s Oscars especially compelling is how little feels truly locked. Even with One Battle After Anotherdominating many of the precursor awards and Sinners surging late in the season, several of the Academy’s biggest races still feel fluid heading into the final vote. A few categories appear inevitable, but many others could easily flip depending on how voters ultimately rank the films they admire most. That uncertainty is rare this late in awards season—and it’s exactly what makes the 2026 ceremony so fascinating to watch.

The acting categories in particular could reshape the narrative of the entire night. Jessie Buckley seems poised to claim Best Actress, while Timothée Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme positions him as the most likely Best Actor winner after a season of shifting momentum. Meanwhile, craft categories like cinematography, production design, and score may quietly reveal which films the Academy truly embraced beneath the surface of the major categories.

Ultimately, the Oscars remain one of the few cultural moments where the industry collectively decides what films will define the year. Whether the night belongs to One Battle After Another, Sinners, or a surprise contender like The Secret Agent, the results will shape how we remember this unusually chaotic awards season for years to come.