Box Office Massacre: October Revenue Hits 27-Year Low, Signaling a Chilling Fall for Hollywood

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Oct 30

‘Tron: Ares’ and ‘The Smashing Machine’ flop as Taylor Swift and anime save a historically bleak October at the box office.

It’s a Halloween horror story — just not the kind Hollywood wanted.

Domestic box office revenue for October 2025 is projected to hit $425 million, the lowest in 27 years (excluding the pandemic lockdown of 2020), according to Comscore. The last time ticket sales were this weak was in 1997, when the domestic market grossed $385 million — before adjusting for inflation.

The numbers paint a grim picture for Hollywood and exhibitors already struggling to regain footing after the dual labor strikes of 2023–2024. October, traditionally a transitional month between summer blockbusters and holiday prestige releases, collapsed under the weight of production delays, scheduling gaps, and underperforming event titles.

The month’s biggest film — Disney’s long-delayed Tron: Ares — managed just $63.4 million domestically, a figure that would have been modest even in 2005. Despite the visual spectacle and a returning Jared Leto, the film couldn’t electrify audiences or capitalize on nostalgia. Analysts point to weak word-of-mouth and franchise fatigue as key factors.

Elsewhere, A24’s The Smashing Machine — directed by Benny Safdie and starring Dwayne Johnson in one of his most ambitious dramatic turns — became the month’s most publicized flop. Earning just $11.4 million domestically and $19.7 million worldwide, the bruising biopic was positioned as a prestige pivot for Johnson but failed to connect commercially or critically.

“October was once a breathing space for prestige and surprise hits,” says Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian, “but this year, the audience simply wasn’t there — or worse, there was nothing worth showing up for.”

The few bright spots came from the unlikeliest corners. Taylor Swift’s The Official Release Party of a Showgirl — an 11th-hour concert experience timed to her new album — injected $34.2 million into domestic grosses, outperforming most scripted releases. Meanwhile, Japanese anime proved to be the month’s real hero: Chainsaw Man: The Movieexceeded expectations with an $18 million debut, topping the Oct. 24–25 weekend, and Demon Slayer: Infinity continued its strong September run into October.

Anime distributor Crunchyroll, owned by Sony, now ranks among the month’s top-performing studios — a telling sign of how global and fan-driven content continues to fill Hollywood’s creative void.

Universal’s The Black Phone 2 also held steady, while Disney’s Bruce Springsteen drama Deliver Me From Nowheremissed the mark, opening at just $8.9 million. Originally positioned as a potential awards contender starring Jeremy Allen White, the film failed to generate buzz despite strong reviews.

Compounding the slump was Warner Bros.’ decision to delay Mortal Kombat II to May 2026, leaving an open hole in late October. “There was no replacement title of comparable weight,” notes analyst Eric Handler of Roth MKM Partners. “Studios have been overly cautious — and the audience can feel it.”

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Historically, October has been a proving ground for genre hybrids and smart counterprogramming. From Gone Girl in 2014 to Joker in 2019, studios learned that audiences were willing to show up for provocative material in the fall. The month even delivered its all-time record in 2018, when Venom, A Star Is Born, and Halloween combined for $832.8 million in ticket sales.

By contrast, this year’s line-up reads like a casualty list: delayed productions, thinned-out schedules, and few four-quadrant plays. Even with Taylor Swift’s boost, the cumulative result is one of the weakest Octobers of the 21st century — and a reminder that star power, spectacle, and IP recognition no longer guarantee turnout.

Year-to-date, domestic revenue remains 3.3% ahead of 2024, but the margin is shrinking fast. Without a strong November-December corridor, Hollywood risks ending the year below last year’s $8.9 billion total.

Eyes now turn to Predator: Badlands, The Running Man, and Thanksgiving tentpoles Wicked: For Good (Nov. 21) and Zootopia 2 (Nov. 26). December heavyweights Avatar: Fire and Ash and the next SpongeBob Movie will close out the year, joined by Timothée Chalamet’s festival favorite Marty Supreme.

For now, though, the message is clear: the post-strike recovery may have arrived on paper, but audiences haven’t followed. The industry’s reliance on legacy IP and delayed prestige projects has left theaters eerily quiet.

As Dergarabedian puts it, “October’s collapse isn’t just about timing — it’s about trust. The audience is waiting for a reason to believe again.”