Wicked: Is This Beloved Musical Poised for Oscar Glory?
universal Pictures
Wicked, the highly anticipated musical adaptation directed by Jon M. Chu, had a magical opening at the worldwide box office this past weekend, earning an astounding $164 million—marking the biggest box office launch ever for a Broadway adaptation. The film, which stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, has not only captured the hearts of audiences everywhere but is now generating serious buzz for the upcoming Oscars. Could Wicked be a real contender for Best Picture?
Is Wicked worthy of Oscar Gold?
A year ago, it would have been hard to imagine Wicked as a major player in the awards race. Musicals have always had a complicated history at the Oscars, and the priority for Wicked seemed to be its commercial success. Well, that dream has certainly come true. With its record-breaking box office, Wicked has become a cultural phenomenon that cannot be ignored. David, when you and I watched the film, we realized that maybe it’s time to reconsider what Wicked can do at the Oscars.
The Academy has shown a trend towards recognizing box office hits, especially in recent years. Films like Oppenheimer, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and Parasite were able to win over voters by combining strong critical reception with undeniable audience appeal. And here comes Wicked, bursting into the awards conversation with that same momentum. With its enchanting storyline, beloved characters, and incredible ensemble cast, it feels like the kind of film that’s poised to bring people together—something the industry may be craving at the end of a stressful year.
One of the most notable aspects of Wicked's opening weekend was, simply put, its triumph. Box office aside, what’s particularly interesting is how the movie’s appeal is so broad. The film has the rare combination of being a feel-good blockbuster while also being technically and artistically impressive. The production and costume design are dazzling, and Jon M. Chu's direction brings a grand cinematic touch to the familiar world of Oz. Combine that with the star power of Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, who both delivered fantastic performances, and you have a formula for awards success. Their chemistry on screen is magnetic, and their voices make the music soar in a way that feels new and fresh, even for fans who have seen the musical on Broadway.
What really sets Wicked apart is its resonance with today’s audiences. Its story—of friendship, identity, and defying unjust power—carries an underlying message that feels especially relevant right now. The film’s inclusive casting and themes of acceptance and challenging oppressive leadership align with the social conversations happening today. These are the kind of elements that could really help Wicked secure a Best Picture nomination, alongside several below-the-line nominations in areas like production design, costume design, and, of course, original song. In many ways, it feels like the perfect antidote to a year filled with uncertainty and division.
But, of course, we have to be realistic. It has been more than two decades since a musical won Best Picture (Chicago in 2003), and Wicked faces some steep competition. Universal Pictures knows how to run a successful Oscar campaign—Oppenheimer was proof of that—but this will require a different approach. Jon M. Chu's direction needs to be at the forefront, highlighting the artistry and vision required to bring such an iconic stage production to life on the big screen. It would also be helpful if Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo continue to push their visibility during the awards season, attending events, connecting with the Hollywood crowd, and showcasing the story of the making of Wicked. The more voters hear from the cast, the more likely they are to fall in love with this movie's magic.
As discussed earlier, Wicked is poised to be a contender across several Oscar categories. The film’s craftsmanship—from set design to choreography—is breathtaking, and we can definitely expect nominations for Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, and perhaps even Best Cinematography. Then there’s the acting branch, which is the largest voting bloc of the Academy. Both Erivo and Grande have a strong chance of securing acting nominations, especially if they keep up the awards season campaigning. There’s something really special about seeing a beloved musical adapted so beautifully to screen, and both of these actors are being praised for bringing emotional authenticity to their iconic roles. Erivo’s portrayal of Elphaba is raw and powerful, and Grande’s Glinda is as charming and heartfelt as fans could have hoped for.
Beyond that, it’s important to talk about the thematic resonance of Wicked. It’s not just about the spectacle; this is a film that’s also a message movie. The underlying themes of acceptance, identity, and the dangers of charismatic but oppressive leadership are handled with nuance. In a post-election year, these themes feel particularly poignant. The Academy loves a film that speaks to the moment, and Wicked might just be the uplifting yet meaningful film that voters want to rally behind.
While musicals don’t often have an easy road to Best Picture, Wicked has some unique advantages. If Jon M. Chu can secure a nomination for Best Director, it could be a real game-changer. Historically, the Best Director category has often gone to films that also win Best Picture, and while this isn’t a guarantee, it would certainly make Wicked more formidable in the race. Chu’s vision for this movie is expansive and creative—he’s managed to capture the grand scale of the original musical while also adding a fresh cinematic flair that makes it feel contemporary and accessible.
The cast needs to stay visible, too. We’ve seen how important that can be for blockbuster films looking to compete for Best Picture. Just look at how the Everything Everywhere All At Once cast charmed Hollywood, or how Barbie and Oppenheimer both benefited from strong showings during the awards campaign. Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, and even supporting stars like Michelle Yeoh, Jeff Goldblum, and Jonathan Bailey need to keep telling the story of what makes Wicked special. When audiences—and voters—see the passion behind the project, it can make all the difference.
There’s also something to be said for the energy this cast brings when they’re together. The camaraderie, the sense of shared purpose—it’s infectious. It reminds me of the ensemble casts of films that have been successful in recent awards seasons. The cast of Wicked has that same kind of energy, and it could really give them a boost as we move into the core of awards season. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that the film’s visuals are stunning, the music is iconic, and the story is timeless.
At this point, it’s hard not to be excited about Wicked’s potential. It’s rare to see a musical adaptation done this well, and even rarer for one to generate this kind of momentum at the box office and in the cultural conversation. While musicals haven’t always been Oscar darlings in recent years, Wicked has enough magic, spectacle, and heart to defy the odds. Whether or not it takes home the Best Picture statue, it has already secured a place in the hearts of millions—and that’s a win in itself.
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