Oscar Predictions: The SAG Awards, Spirit Awards, and What They Signal for the Academy

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Feb 21

Written By Jonathan P. Moustakas

**SAG-AFTRA / Searchlight Pictures / Neon / Mubi / A24**

As Hollywood prepares for its most prestigious night, all eyes turn to the final major precursors before the Academy Awards: the Film Independent Spirit Awards and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards. These two ceremonies serve as vital barometers, shaping narratives, reinforcing industry consensus, and sometimes delivering the unexpected just as Oscar ballots are being tallied.

The Road to Oscar Sunday: A Final Awards Push

Bryant will host the Spirit Awards for the second time on Saturday. **(Michael Buckner/Variety via Getty Images)**

Hollywood Boulevard is already partially closed, the Dolby Theatre is being transformed, and the industry’s biggest names are finalizing their ensembles for the Academy Awards. However, before we reach the apex of awards season, two influential ceremonies stand in the way: the Spirit Awards on Saturday and the SAG Awards on Sunday.

The Spirit Awards, which honor independent cinema, have a mixed history when it comes to Oscar alignment. Some years, indie darlings like Nomadland and Everything Everywhere All at Once dominate both ceremonies. In other years, the Spirits highlight overlooked gems, as seen with Past Lives last year amid Barbenheimer’s reign. This year, Anora and I Saw the TV Glow lead the Spirit Award nominations. I Saw the TV Glow, a surreal meditation on trans identity and nostalgia, has drawn praise for its bold storytelling and subtle social commentary.

SAG Awards: The Definitive Oscar Predictor?

Historically, the SAG Awards provide one of the clearest indicators of Oscar success. The Best Ensemble category, the guild’s closest equivalent to Best Picture, has successfully predicted the Academy’s top winner in four of the past five years. Films like Parasite, CODA, Everything Everywhere All at Once, and Oppenheimer gained definitive momentum at SAG before ultimately securing Oscar gold.

This year’s Best Ensemble race is particularly compelling, featuring Anora, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Wicked, and Emilia Pérez. Anora has steadily built momentum, but if Conclave or Wicked scores an upset, it could indicate a shift in the broader Oscar race. A Wicked win could mirror Hidden Figures’ 2017 SAG triumph—where an immensely popular film with an outstanding cast took home SAG’s top honor despite not being a serious Oscar Best Picture contender.

Acting Categories: Are the Races Locked, or Are Twists Ahead?

The SAG Awards frequently serve as the final word in the acting categories. This year, Demi Moore, Adrien Brody, Zoe Saldaña, and Kieran Culkin are widely considered frontrunners. However, Mikey Madison’s surprise BAFTA win for Anora has sparked speculation that the Best Actress race might not be as locked as previously assumed. If Madison manages another upset at SAG, it could indicate a legitimate challenge to Moore’s Oscar dominance.

Behind the Scenes at the SAG Awards: Producing an Industry-Defining Night

Joe Brockett has worked on the SAG Awards show for more than 20 years, four as executive producer. **(Monica Schipper/Getty Images)**

Bringing the SAG Awards to life is an enormous undertaking, made even more challenging this year by recent disruptions like the Los Angeles wildfires, which delayed production schedules. In an exclusive interview with The Cinema Group, SAG Awards executive producers Jon Brockett and Linda Gierahn detailed the high-stakes logistics of mounting such an event.

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“This week is crunch time times a thousand,” Brockett revealed. “We joke that we get a week’s worth of work done in a single day.” Despite the high-pressure environment, Brockett and Gierahn remain committed to preserving the SAG Awards’ unique identity as a celebration of actors, by actors.

Beyond the awards, the event also plays a significant philanthropic role, raising funds for the SAG-AFTRA Foundation. This year, with the foundation operating a disaster relief fund, its charitable impact is even more pronounced. “We’ve worked closely with talent to ensure they’re part of something meaningful beyond the awards themselves,” Brockett emphasized.

Final Predictions: What Do the SAG and Spirit Awards Mean for Oscar Night?

*Oppenheimer*’s ensemble win at the 2024 SAG Awards solidified its frontrunner status for Oscar’s best picture. **(Matt Winkelmeyer/Getty Images)**

As the final major awards shows before the Oscars, the SAG and Spirit Awards provide essential clues about the Academy’s direction. Will Anora further solidify its status as the Best Picture frontrunner, or will a dark horse like Conclave or Wicked disrupt the landscape? Can Mikey Madison’s late-season surge upend the Best Actress race, or will the SAG results confirm Moore’s steady path to victory?

While no single award is an absolute predictor, history suggests that the SAG winners provide a highly reliable map to Oscar success. By the time the lights dim at the Dolby Theatre, we’ll have a much clearer picture of where the Academy is headed.