Oscars 2025: Best Actress Nominees – Awards, Performances, and Their Chances
As the highly anticipated 2025 Academy Awards approach, the competition for Best Actress stands out as one of the most riveting and closely contested races in recent memory. This year’s nominees embody a captivating fusion of seasoned industry icons, groundbreaking newcomers, and actors making historic strides in representation. Each contender has delivered a performance that has resonated deeply with audiences and critics alike, making this category one of the most unpredictable and compelling of the night. Below, we analyze the leading actresses vying for Oscar gold, exploring their transformative performances, their accolades throughout the awards season, and the factors that could ultimately determine their fate as they prepare for Hollywood’s most prestigious evening.
Demi Moore – The Substance
MUBI
Career Wins and Nominations
While Demi Moore’s career has long been defined by box-office dominance rather than critical acclaim, The Substancehas propelled her into the awards circuit spotlight. The 62-year-old actress has won both the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy and the Critics’ Choice Award, while also securing the SAG Award. However, she lost the BAFTA and Independent Spirit Award to her closest competitor, Mikey Madison.
Role & Performance
Moore plays Elisabeth Sparkle, a fading celebrity who turns to a black-market drug to create a younger version of herself, only to suffer unexpected consequences. The role has been lauded for its biting satire on ageism and Hollywood’s obsession with youth.
Oscar Chances
Moore remains the frontrunner, albeit by a narrow margin. While Madison has been gaining late-season momentum, Moore’s deeply personal comeback narrative, combined with industry goodwill, gives her an undeniable edge.
What Critics Said
The Guardian called The Substance “flawed and overlong,” but praised Moore’s performance as “a stroke of genius casting.”
Why She Could Win
Moore’s career resurgence and her poignant personal journey—marked by past struggles with industry perception—have made her a sentimental favorite. Additionally, The Substance addresses themes of gender, power, and societal expectations, making it particularly relevant in today’s Hollywood landscape.
Why She Might Lose
Some find the film too gory, and horror has historically had a tough time at the Oscars. Plus, Moore’s biggest losses have all been to Madison, signaling a real challenge in the final vote count.
Mikey Madison – Anora
NEON
Career Wins and Nominations
At just 25, Mikey Madison has made an astonishing impact with Anora, her first major awards-season role. She has already won the Independent Spirit Award and, most significantly, the BAFTA, firmly establishing herself as Moore’s strongest challenger.
Role & Performance
Madison plays the titular sex worker in Sean Baker’s raw and intimate drama about a romance with the reckless son of a Russian billionaire. The film has been hailed for its sharp social commentary and Madison’s magnetic performance.
Oscar Chances
Had Madison won the SAG Award, she might have overtaken Moore as the frontrunner. Still, she remains a strong second favorite and could pull off an upset.
What Critics Said
The Guardian described Madison’s performance as “terrific” and said she “owns the screen.”
Why She Could Win
Hollywood loves a Cinderella story, and Madison’s breakout performance is exactly the kind of discovery the Academy likes to reward. Additionally, Anora has been sweeping major guild awards, including the WGA and PGA—both strong indicators of Oscar success.
Why She Might Lose
She’s young, relatively unknown, and competing against an established star with decades of goodwill behind her. Some voters may also view her performance as too closely tied to the film’s director, since the role was written specifically for her.
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
Sony Pictures Classic
Career Wins and Nominations
Torres, a legend in Latin American cinema, won Best Actress at Cannes in 1986, but I’m Still Here has brought her to international awards-season prominence. She made history as the first Brazilian actress to win a Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama and is only the second Brazilian ever nominated in this Oscar category.
Role & Performance
She plays Eunice Paiva, an activist fighting for justice after the forced disappearance of her husband during Brazil’s military dictatorship. The film, based on a true story, has resonated strongly with audiences worldwide.
Oscar Chances
While unlikely to win, Torres could be a dark horse. If voters lean toward recognizing international talent, she could surprise everyone with an upset.
Why She Could Win
The film’s political themes align with Hollywood’s progressive values, and Torres is an acting icon. Plus, her Golden Globe victory demonstrated strong global support.
Why She Might Lose
The Golden Globes are voted on by a different body than the Oscars, and Torres’s campaign suffered minor setbacks due to controversy over nomination lobbying.
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Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
UNIVERSAL
Career Wins and Nominations
Erivo is already an Emmy, Grammy, and Tony winner, needing only an Oscar to complete her EGOT. Despite past nominations for Harriet, she remains a long shot in this race.
Role & Performance
She plays Elphaba, the green-skinned heroine destined to become the Wicked Witch of the West, in Jon M. Chu’s adaptation of the beloved Broadway musical.
Oscar Chances
Despite her undeniable talent, Erivo is not expected to win. Wicked is more of a blockbuster crowd-pleaser than an Oscar powerhouse.
Why She Could Win
The Academy might want to acknowledge a major commercial success, and Erivo’s performance is the heart of the film.
Why She Might Lose
The film’s lighthearted tone and commercial appeal may work against it in a race dominated by weightier performances.
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
NETFLIX
Career Wins and Nominations
Gascón made history as the first openly trans actor nominated for an Oscar, following wins at Cannes and the European Film Awards.
Role & Performance
She plays a feared cartel boss who fakes their own death to transition in Jacques Audiard’s ambitious musical.
Oscar Chances
What once seemed like a history-making win has been overshadowed by controversy. Her chances are now slim.
Why She Could Win
If voters rally behind the groundbreaking nature of her nomination, she could still pull off a win.
Why She Might Lose
Gascón’s campaign suffered a near-fatal blow due to past offensive tweets, leading to public distancing from her studio and colleagues.
Final Thoughts: Who Will Take the Prize?
NeON
Demi Moore remains the favorite, but Mikey Madison is within striking distance. If the Academy favors legacy and industry goodwill, Moore will finally take home her first Oscar. However, if they prioritize fresh talent and an indie success story, Madison could pull off a historic upset.
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