Final Oscar Predictions: A Year of Unpredictable Surprises? Plus, How and When to Watch

NYFF

The 2025 Oscar nominations will be unveiled on Thursday, January 23, in a virtual event hosted by Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott. The announcement begins at 8:30 a.m. ET / 5:30 a.m. PT and will be split into two segments. The first segment covers categories like Best Supporting Actor and Best Original Screenplay, while the second, starting at 8:41 a.m. ET / 5:41 a.m. PT, will reveal top honors such as Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Director.

Audiences can watch the live stream on the Academy’s YouTube channel or via ABC’s Good Morning America.

Among the leading contenders, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, a Netflix-backed crime musical, could make history as the most-nominated non-English-language film, sweeping major categories if it also secures key technical nods.

Edward Berger’s Conclave, fresh off a BAFTA triumph, is another top player. With likely nominations for Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini, the Vatican-set thriller positions Focus Features as a strong contender for its first-ever Best Picture win.

Universal’s Wicked, powered by its star-studded cast, including Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, continues to dazzle. While Jon M. Chu may miss out on a Best Director nomination, the film remains a formidable presence across major and technical categories.

This year’s Best Director race boasts a wealth of talent, though it may face criticism if no women are included. Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light) and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) are strong hopefuls, competing against heavyweights like Audiard and Berger.

Meanwhile, Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist is riding a wave of momentum, with recent Golden Globe wins for both Corbet and lead actor Adrien Brody. Still, the film could face surprises in the supporting categories.

The Best Actor category is shaping up to feature Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), with Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) and Daniel Craig (Queer) rounding out the likely nominees. For Best Actress, Demi Moore (The Substance) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) lead the field, with Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) and Mikey Madison (Anora) fighting for recognition.

Craft categories will likely amplify the spotlight on Dune: Part Two, which is expected to dominate Visual Effects, Sound, and Makeup. Meanwhile, Wicked and Nosferatu are strong contenders for Production Design and Costume Design, and The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez may lead in Cinematography.

Although AI’s controversial use in The Brutalist has sparked industry debates, its impact on nominations remains uncertain. Additionally, the voting deadline extension, prompted by the devastating Los Angeles wildfires, could introduce unexpected twists, potentially giving last-minute campaigns an edge.

Final Predictions

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Best Picture

• Anora

• The Brutalist

• A Complete Unknown

• Conclave

• Dune: Part Two

• Emilia Pérez

• A Real Pain

• Sing Sing

• The Substance

• Wicked

Best Director

• Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)

• Sean Baker (Anora)

• Edward Berger (Conclave)

• Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)

• Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light)

Best Actor

• Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)

• Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)

• Daniel Craig (Queer)

• Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)

• Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)

Best Actress

• Cynthia Erivo (Wicked)

• Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths)

• Mikey Madison (Anora)

• Demi Moore (The Substance)

• Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here)

Supporting Actor

• Yura Borisov (Anora)

• Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)

• Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)

• Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)

• Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)

Supporting Actress

• Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown)

• Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl)

• Ariana Grande (Wicked)

• Isabella Rossellini (Conclave)

• Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• All We Imagine as Light

• Anora

• The Brutalist

• A Real Pain

• The Substance

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• A Complete Unknown

• Conclave

• Emilia Pérez

• Sing Sing

• Wicked

ANIMATED FEATURE

• Flow

• Inside Out 2

• Memoir of a Snail

• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

• The Wild Robot

PRODUCTION DESIGN

• The Brutalist

• Conclave

• Dune: Part Two

• Nosferatu

• Wicked

CINEMATOGRAPHY

• The Brutalist

• Conclave

• Emilia Pérez

• Maria

• Nosferatu

COSTUME DESIGN

• A Complete Unknown

• Conclave

• Gladiator II

• Nosferatu

• Wicked

FILM EDITING

• Anora

• Conclave

• Dune: Part Two

• Emilia Pérez

• Wicked

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

• Dune: Part Two

• Emilia Pérez

• Nosferatu

• The Substance

• Wicked

SOUND

• A Complete Unknown

• Dune: Part Two

• Gladiator II

• Joker: Folie à Deux

• Wicked

VISUAL EFFECTS

• Better Man

• Deadpool & Wolverine

• Dune: Part Two

• Gladiator II

• Wicked

ORIGINAL SCORE

• The Brutalist

• Conclave

• Emilia Pérez

• The Room Next Door

• The Wild Robot

ORIGINAL SONG

• Never Too Late Elton John: Never Too Late

• El Mal Emilia Pérez

• Sick in the Head Kneecap

• The Journey The Six Triple Eight

• Kiss the Sky The Wild Robot

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• Daughters

• No Other Land

• Porcelain War

• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

• Sugarcane

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

• Emilia Pérez

• Flow

• I’m Still Here

• Kneecap

• Vermiglio

POPULAR ON THE CINEMA GROUP

ANIMATED SHORT

• A Bear Named Wojtek

• In the Shadow of Cypress

• Maybe Elephants

• Wander to Wonder

• Yuck!

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

• Death by Numbers

• I Am Ready, Warden

• Until Hes Back!!

• Once Upon a Time in Ukraine

• A Swim Lesson

LIVE ACTION SHORT

• Anuja

• Dovecote

• The Last Ranger

• A Lien

• The Masterpiece

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2025 Oscars Timeline

Jan. 23: Oscar Nominations Announced

Feb. 7: Critics Choice Awards

Feb. 22: Film Independent Spirit Awards

Mar. 2: 97th Academy Awards Ceremony

The Oscars, hosted by Conan O’Brien, will air live from the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT on ABC and Hulu.

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