OSCARS PREDICTIONS 2025: THANKSGIVING UPDATES
graphic By the Cinema Group
With awards Projections for Gotham awards,
New York Film Critics and National Board of Review Awards
The Cinema group awards tracker serves as the central hub for all awards-related news and content throughout the year, ensuring fans and industry insiders have access to the latest updates on major ceremonies. This section offers meticulously curated predictions for the highly-anticipated Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, and Tony Awards, all prepared by Variety's senior awards editor, Clayton Davis. These prediction pages outline the current standings in the awards race, based on ongoing developments, while deliberately avoiding any personal biases towards the contenders. Like any competition, the awards landscape is notoriously dynamic, influenced by buzz, events, and informal polls. Therefore, these predictions are subject to revision and are updated every Thursday to reflect the latest changes in the scene.
The awards tracker also provides a detailed glimpse into the SAG Awards commentary which has been recently updated as of November 26, 2024. As the Thanksgiving holiday weekend marks the start of crucial viewing periods for voters with their first batch of screeners, the question arises: where does the race stand now? Universal Pictures’ “Wicked” has been grabbing headlines persistently, with screenings and Q&As creating waves within the industry this past week.
Most notably, Sony Pictures hosted a SAG Nominating Committee screening on Monday evening, featuring the talented ensemble of “Saturday Night.” The event's standout moment was a heartfelt speech by Robert Wuhl, a cast member, who eloquently articulated the importance of awards to an actor's career, which was met with enthusiastic applause from the audience. Such instances can potentially boost a film's visibility and recognition in the tight-knit awards circuit.
Similarly, Netflix’s Spanish-language musical “Emilia Pérez” left a significant impact during a SAG Q&A session, with its lead actor, Karla Sofía Gascón, receiving a standing ovation. Such moments are pivotal as they can greatly influence the film's trajectory in the awards tracker, potentially leading to historical achievements if the momentum sustains.
Currently, the campaign strategy is cautious, but steady, suggesting that if Gascón's performance maintains its charm and appeal, she is likely to achieve groundbreaking success.
Pre-Thanksgiving updates are provided below, noting that while the specific category pages remain unchanged until the weekend, comprehensive analyses can be found in this week's Awards Circuit column.
Adding to the excitement, the Gotham Awards will hold the first official award ceremony of the season on Monday, paving the way for the New York Film Critics Circle's evaluations on Tuesday, followed by the National Board of Review's insights on Wednesday. I’ve outlined my official projections for each of these influential groups below.
It’s crucial to remember that while these group accolades are notable, they are not definitive judges of awards success. Historical evidence, such as "The Lord of the Rings" films not making it onto NBR’s top 10 list, exemplifies the unpredictable nature of tastes and decisions across different groups. Despite these uncertainties, predictions continue to be made, and with optimism, we wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving as we delve into the awards season.
Gotham Awards Predictions (Dec. 2)
Gotham Insistute
Best Feature: “Anora”
Lead Performance: Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths”
Supporting Performance: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Director: Sean Baker, “Anora”
International Feature: “All We Imagine as Light”
Documentary Feature: “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”Screenplay: “His Three Daughters”
Breakthrough Director: Alessandra Lacorazza, “In the Summers”
Breakthrough Performer: Ryan Destiny, “The Fire Inside”
New York Film Critics Circle Predictions (Dec. 3)
NYFCC
Best Film: “The Brutalist”
Director: Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Actor: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”
Actress: Nicole Kidman, “Babygirl”
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”
Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Nickel Boys”
Screenplay: “Anora”
Animated Film: “The Wild Robot”
Cinematography: “Nosferatu”
Non-Fiction Film: “No Other Land”
International Film: “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”
First Film: Annie Baker, “Janet Planet”
National Board of Review (Dec. 4)
National Board of Review
Best Film: “Conclave”
Director: Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Actor: Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Actress: Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl”
Supporting Actor: Denzel Washington, “Gladiator II”
Supporting Actress: Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson”
Original Screenplay: “Anora”
Adapted Screenplay: “The Room Next Door”
Animated Feature: “Inside Out 2”
Breakthrough Performance: Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Directorial Debut: Malcolm Washington, “The Piano Lesson”
International Film: “I’m Still Here”
Documentary: “Sugarcane”Ensemble: “Saturday Night”
Cinematography: “Dune: Part Two”
Stunt Artistry: “The Fall Guy”
NBR Top 10 Films
“Challengers”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two”
“Inside Out 2”
“A Real Pain”
“Saturday Night”
“September 5”
“Sing Sing”
“Wicked”
“The Wild Robot”
Top 10 Independent Films
“Anora”
“Between the Temples”
“The Brutalist”
“A Different Man”
“Ghostlight”
“Girls Will Be Girls”
“In the Summers”
“Janet Planet”
“Nickel Boys”
“The People’s Joker”
Top 5 International Films
“All We Imagine as Light”
“Armand”
“Emilia Pérez”“I’m Still Here”
“Vermiglio”
Top 5 Documentaries
“Black Box Diaries”
“Daughters”
“Power”
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story”
“Will & Harper”
SEE ALL ACADEMY AWARD PREDICTIONS
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.
PREDICTED WINNER — (All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
universal pictures
“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Sing Sing” (A24)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Director
paramount pictures
Jacques Audiard - “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker - “Anora” (Neon)
Brady Corbet - “The Brutalist” (A24)
Jon M. Chu -“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Ridley Scott - “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Actor
Searchlight Pictures
Adrien Brody - “The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet - “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Daniel Craig - “Queer” (A24)
Colman Domingo - “Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes - “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Actress
neon
Cynthia Erivo -“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Karla Sofía Gascón - “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Marianne Jean-Baptiste - “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
Angelina Jolie - “Maria” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison - “Anora” (Neon)
Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov - “Anora” (Neon)
Kieran Culkin - “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Clarence Maclin - “Sing Sing” (A24)
Guy Pearce - “The Brutalist” (A24)
Denzel Washington - “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Supporting Actress
Courtesy of Universal Pictures
Monica Barbaro - “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Danielle Deadwyler - “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Ariana Grande - “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Isabella Rossellini - “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña - “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Original Screenplay
Lionel Hahn/Getty Images
“Anora” (Neon) - Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24) - Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) - Mike Leigh
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures)- jesse Eisenberg
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) - Mohammad Rasoulof
Adapted Screenplay
Focus Features
“Conclave” (Focus Features) - Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) - Jacques Audiard
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) - Pedro Almodóvar
“Sing Sing” (A24) - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures) - Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox
Animated Feature
Universal Pictures/DreamWorks Animation
“Flow” (Janus Films and Sideshow)
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Production Design
Courtesy of Universal Pictures
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Cinematography
A24
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Costume Design
Courtesy of Universal Pictures
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Film Editing
a24
“Anora” (Neon)
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Makeup and Hairstyling
Warner bros
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Sound
paramount pictures
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)( )
Visual Effects
paramount pictures
“Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Wicked (Universal Pictures)
Original Score
a24
“The Brutalist” (A24)
“Conclave” (Focus Features)Conclave (Focus Features)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Original Song
netflix
“Forbidden Road” from “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Documentary Feature
netflix
“Dahomey” (Mubi)
“Daughters” (Netflix)
“No Other Land” (ImmerGuteFilme)
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
“Will & Harper” (Netflix)
International Feature
Netflix
“Dahomey” from Senegal (Mubi)
“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix)
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)
More Information (All Categories)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
Best Picture Director
Actor in a Leading Role
Actress in a Leading Role
Actor in a Supporting Role
Actress in a Supporting Role
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Animated Feature
Production Design
Cinematography
Costume Design
Film Editing
Makeup and Hairstyling
Sound Visual Effects
Original Score Original Song
Documentary Feature
International Feature
Animated Short Documentary Short
Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026 )
2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit)
The Cinema group awards tracker section provides comprehensive weekly updates on the 2025 awards race, keeping readers informed on the latest happenings and predictions for major film industry honors such as the Gotham Awards, the New York Film Critics Awards, and the National Board of Review Awards. Recent screenings and Q&A sessions for films like “Wicked” and “Emilia Pérez” have generated significant buzz, potentially impacting their prospects as the awards season unfolds. The Gotham Awards will officially kick off awards season on December 2nd, followed by the New York Film Critics Circle on December 3rd, and the National Board of Review on December 4th. This series of events sets the stage for the grand spectacle of film accolades.
As the excitement builds, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) announces the nominations for the 97th Academy Awards. Prominent films such as “Gladiator II,” “Wicked,” and “Emilia Pérez” have secured nominations, competing in key categories including Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and a diverse array of technical and creative awards. The anticipation culminates in the intricate detail of each category, reflecting the year's cinematic achievements. The prestigious Oscars ceremony is scheduled to captivate audiences with its glamour and recognition of excellence on March 2, 2025.
The Academy Awards, commonly known as the Oscars, represent the pinnacle of achievement in Hollywood's vibrant film industry. Established in 1927 and selected by the distinguished members of AMPAS, the Oscars have gained a reputation as the most coveted honors in the filmmaking world. The accolades serve as a benchmark for excellence, celebrating artistic and technical brilliance in cinema and immortalizing the achievements of filmmakers, actors, and crews whose work resonates across the globe.
About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Nineteen branches are represented within the nearly 11,000-person membership. The branches are actors, animators, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films, sound, visual effects and writers.
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