With breakout lead performances, late-emerging contenders, and a rapidly evolving Academy redefining the field, the 2026 Oscar race is moving faster—and hitting harder—than anything in recent memory.

With studios reshuffling release calendars on the fly, streamers rewriting their entire awards playbooks, and campaigns erupting across social feeds with the kind of force you usually only see during sporting events or political cycles, the 2026 Oscar race isn’t simply taking shape — it’s mutating in front of our eyes. This season feels less like the next chapter of awards season and more like the aftershock of several years of industry whiplash. Theatrical windows have collapsed, global box office patterns swing like a pendulum, and the Academy’s membership has diversified so dramatically that the word “Oscar contender” doesn’t mean what it did even three years ago.

And that shift is written all over the contenders leading the conversation. Timothée Chalamet is somehow dominating Best Actor for Marty Supreme — a film the general public still hasn’t seen a single frame of. That’s how outsized its cultural footprint is. A 1950s ping-pong fever dream has become one of the most anticipated films of the year off campaign energy alone. If the movie actually lands the way people think it will, Chalamet becomes unstoppable. If it doesn’t, this race blows open immediately.

Jessie Buckley, on the other hand, didn’t enter Best Actress — she crashed through the front door. Hamnet’s release this weekend shifted the entire season in real time. Her performance isn’t just winning raves; it’s the emotional center of gravity of the year. Buckley has delivered the kind of turn that can rewire an entire race once voters finally lay eyes on it — raw, lived-in, and devastating in a way that forces you to recalibrate what the category even is.

Meanwhile, Paul Thomas Anderson still sits comfortably atop Best Director, and the reason is simple: One Battle After Another has had months to marinate. Released over the summer, it’s the only major contender with a long, uninterrupted runway — enough time for the craft branches, the directors, the actors, and the older guard of the Academy to settle firmly into its corner. It’s the industry’s prestige anchor, the film everything else orbits around whether it wants to or not.

Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet arrives from the opposite end of the calendar but with just as much force. Zhao is the late-season disruptor — the filmmaker who shows up with a deeply emotional, exquisitely controlled drama that knocks two or three presumed nominees down the board within 48 hours of release. It’s the exact kind of late-year arrival that historically surges at just the right time, especially in Director and Actress.

And then there’s Ariana Grande — who, in the most unexpectedly perfect twist of the season, is becoming a real Best Supporting Actress contender. Wicked: For Good hasn’t even opened yet, but early reactions have already singled her out as the film’s emotional pulse. Her performance is landing with the kind of clarity and confidence that makes this category feel suddenly volatile. When the movie drops, she could easily become this year’s “everyone underestimated her” storyline.

Every major category mirrors that energy: competing visions of what the Oscars should be, what the industry wants to reward, and who’s actually leading the moment. Early-year releases (One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners) are facing down fresh December heat (Hamnet), while complete unknowns (Marty Supreme) loom like wildcards with the ability to flip the table the second they screen.

This is the 2026 Oscar race — messy, loud, unpredictable, and more alive than any awards season in years. A landscape driven by visibility, timing, culture, and collision — not consensus. And The Cinema Group’s breakdown of the field captures exactly where the race stands before the next earthquake hits.

BEST PICTURE

Leonardo DiCaprio in 'One Battle After Another.' - **COURTESY OF WARNER BROS.**

TCG Predicted Top 10:

One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Sinners
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
It Was Just an Accident
Frankenstein
Jay Kelly
Wicked: For Good
Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Picture is a three-way collision of power, poetry, and cultural momentum. One Battle After Another sits atop TCG’s rankings because it represents the kind of cinema the Academy has historically uplifted when all cylinders fire at once: an auteur at the height of his powers, a towering ensemble led by Leonardo DiCaprio and Chase Infiniti, razor-sharp writing, and a bold emotional architecture. It’s an awards-season superstructure — the kind of film that earns passion votes across every branch.

But its lead is narrow. Hamnet is the year’s emotional powerhouse — intimate, literary, and devastating. Chloé Zhao reshapes historical storytelling with a quiet ferocity, and the film’s intimate portrayal of grief gives it the thematic gravity the Academy rarely ignores. Jessie Buckley delivers her career-best work. If Academy voters lean emotional over monumental, Hamnet can win.

Then there’s Sinners. Ryan Coogler’s most daring film to date fuses genre, politics, and myth in a way only he can. The film has passionate supporters, and that matters. It is sharp, angry, and unflinching — the kind of movie voters champion when they want the Oscars to reflect the moment rather than stand outside of it.

From there, the race becomes beautifully chaotic. Marty Supreme has exploded into the conversation with a campaign unlike anything else this season. What began as a Safdie-Bronstein fever dream has turned into a cultural movement powered by Timothée Chalamet’s volcanic performance, a streetwear-driven marketing blitz, and A24’s ability to convert online obsession into industry momentum. If the Academy leans toward audacity, Marty Supreme could become this year’s Everything Everywhere All at Once — the outsider that storms the center.

Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, and Frankenstein bring international reach, festival pedigree, and auteur prestige to the race. Jay Kelly has surged thanks to its Venice reactions and Noah Baumbach’s sharpest writing since Marriage Story. Wicked: For Good, meanwhile, is the populist dark horse — a massive, emotional musical with global momentum and passionate fan energy. The Academy doesn’t always honor musicals, but when they do, it’s because they make people feel something unmistakable.

Avatar: Fire and Ash rounds out the ten — a likely nominee, a far less likely winner, but a technical powerhouse that benefits from the Academy’s broadened global membership.

BEST DIRECTOR

**Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection**

TCG Predicted Top 10:

Paul Thomas Anderson — One Battle After Another
Chloé Zhao — Hamnet
Josh Safdie — Marty Supreme
Jafar Panahi — It Was Just an Accident
Ryan Coogler — Sinners
Joachim Trier — Sentimental Value
Guillermo del Toro — Frankenstein
Kleber Mendonça Filho — The Secret Agent
Noah Baumbach — Jay Kelly
Jon M. Chu — Wicked: For Good

This may be the strongest directing lineup of the decade. Paul Thomas Anderson leads not because he is overdue — though he is — but because One Battle After Another is the kind of overwhelming technical and emotional achievement that defines a filmmaker’s legacy. If the Academy wants to reward mastery, PTA wins.

But Chloé Zhao is not far behind. Her command of tone, intimacy, and visual storytelling in Hamnet is exquisite — and the Academy has already shown its willingness to embrace her vision. If the race becomes about heart over muscle, Zhao could take the lead.

Josh Safdie represents the season’s wildest and most exciting variable. Marty Supreme is a high-wire act of tone, chaos, and precision — a sensory overload that somehow holds together through sheer vision. If the Academy leans toward bold filmmaking over classical form, Safdie becomes a shock Best Director winner.

Panahi, Coogler, Trier, and del Toro form the backbone of the international prestige lane. Each represents a different strand of global cinema — political urgency, mythic scale, emotional turbulence, sensual tragedy — and any one of them could claim a spot. Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent is one of the best-reviewed films of the year and could easily climb higher.

Jon M. Chu is the blockbuster populist here — and if Wicked: For Good becomes a sensation, this ranking rises.

BEST ACTRESS

Jessie Buckley in *Hamnet -* **AGATA GRZYBOWSKA/FOCUS FEATURE**

TCG Predicted Top 10:

Jessie Buckley — Hamnet
Renate Reinsve — Sentimental Value
Cynthia Erivo — Wicked: For Good
Amanda Seyfried — The Testament of Ann Lee
Rose Byrne — If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti — One Battle After Another
Kate Hudson — Song Sung Blue
Emma Stone — Bugonia
Tessa Thompson — Hedda
Jennifer Lawrence — Die, My Love

This is Jessie Buckley’s race to lose. Her performance in Hamnet is the kind of raw, devastating, spiritually charged work that defines Best Actress winners. She embodies grief, memory, and artistic longing with terrifying grace. If the Academy votes with its heart, Buckley wins.

Renate Reinsve is right behind her. Sentimental Value is intimate, fragile, and elegant, and she elevates it into something transcendent. She is the critics’ dream pick — the alternative who could rise fast if the race tightens.

Cynthia Erivo is the powerhouse. Wicked: For Good is global, emotional, and anchored by her soaring, wounded, magnetic performance. If the film becomes a sensation, Erivo has a path to the win.

Seyfried, Byrne, Infiniti, and Hudson round out the artistic middle of the race. Emma Stone’s ranking remains low only because she cannot repeat after Poor Things — but she’s Emma Stone, and a surge is possible. Tessa Thompson and Jennifer Lawrence add star power and dramatic heft.

But for now, this category belongs to Buckley.

BEST ACTOR

TCG Predicted Top 10:

Timothée Chalamet — Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio — One Battle After Another
Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent
Ethan Hawke — Blue Moon
Joel Edgerton — Train Dreams
George Clooney — Jay Kelly
Michael B. Jordan — Sinners
Jeremy Allen White — Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Dwayne Johnson — The Smashing Machine
Daniel Day-Lewis — Anemone

Timothée Chalamet currently leads the Best Actor race — and not because he is the most famous or the most visible. His performance in Marty Supreme is explosive, manic, heartbreakingly vulnerable, and astonishingly controlled. It is the kind of work that redefines an actor’s career. This is his best performance to date. If the momentum holds, he wins.

But Leonardo DiCaprio is a serious threat. His work in One Battle After Another is grand, wounded, mythic — the kind of turn that earns No. 1 votes. If the film dominates the nominations, DiCaprio’s ranking will narrow the gap.

Wagner Moura is the critics’ darling — a towering, electric performance in The Secret Agent that deserves to be ranked higher than it currently is. If the international branch flexes, he becomes a stealth frontrunner.

Hawke, Edgerton, Clooney, and Jordan are layered, subtle, actor’s-actor performances. Jeremy Allen White and Dwayne Johnson bring surprising emotional weight. Daniel Day-Lewis rounds out the ten with his enigmatic return — even a whisper from him is enough to stay in the conversation.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Teyana Taylor in *One Battle After Another -* **Credit Warner Bros.**

TCG Predicted Top 10:

Teyana Taylor — One Battle After Another
Ariana Grande — Wicked: For Good
Elle Fanning — Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — Sentimental Value
Gwyneth Paltrow — Marty Supreme
Odessa A’zion — Marty Supreme
Amy Madigan — Weapons
Regina Hall — One Battle After Another
Emily Blunt — The Smashing Machine
Jennifer Lopez — Kiss of the Spider Woman

This is one of the most volatile categories of the season. Right now, Teyana Taylor sits in the strongest position. Her performance in One Battle After Another is a revelation — fierce, grounded, emotionally volcanic, and unforgettable. If the film dominates, she wins.

But Ariana Grande is coming fast. Wicked: For Good is a global phenomenon waiting to happen, and her performance is the emotional core of the film. She has the narrative, the fanbase, the transformation, and the surprise dramatic power that the Academy loves rewarding in this category.

POPULAR ON THE CINEMA GROUP

Fanning and Lilleaas split the Sentimental Value vote — both exceptional, both essential to the film’s emotional world. Paltrow and A’zion deliver two of Marty Supreme’s strongest scenes — if the film surges to a Best Picture threat, either could rise.

Madigan, Hall, Blunt, and Lopez complete a category crowded with legacy names and scene-stealers.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Stellan Skarsgård in *Sentimental Value -* **Credit: NEON**

TCG Predicted Top 10:

Stellan Skarsgård — Sentimental Value
Sean Penn — One Battle After Another
Paul Mescal — Hamnet
Adam Sandler — Jay Kelly
Jacob Elordi — Frankenstein
Benicio del Toro — One Battle After Another
Delroy Lindo — Sinners
Jeremy Strong — Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Jonathan Bailey — Wicked: For Good
Miles Caton — Sinners

Stellan Skarsgård currently leads this category. His work in Sentimental Value is delicate, wise, wounded, and resonant — the kind of late-career performance the Academy loves honoring. If the film holds steady across categories, Skarsgård becomes this year’s sentimental and critical choice.

But Sean Penn is right behind him. One Battle After Another is the kind of ensemble epic that can sweep acting categories. Penn’s turn is the film’s moral spine — sharp, dangerous, and unforgettable.

Paul Mescal is simply too good to ignore. His work in Hamnet is quiet but devastating, and if the film surges, Mescal becomes a real threat.

Jacob Elordi’s ranking is climbing fast thanks to the overwhelming response to Frankenstein. Sandler, del Toro, Lindo, and Strong form the category’s dramatic backbone. Jonathan Bailey and Miles Caton reflect the spectrum of performances voters are considering.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

TCG Predicted Top 10:

One Battle After Another — Paul Thomas Anderson
Hamnet — Maggie O’Farrell & Chloé Zhao
Train Dreams — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery — Rian Johnson
Frankenstein — Guillermo del Toro
Bugonia — Will Tracy
No Other Choice — Lee Ja-hye, Lee Kyoung-mi, Park Chan-wook & Don McKellar
Hedda — Nia DaCosta
Wicked: For Good — Dana Fox & Winnie Holzman
Nuremberg — James Vanderbilt

Anderson leads here because few working filmmakers adapt literature with his level of structural intelligence and tonal fury. Hamnet remains a close second — Zhao and O’Farrell’s collaboration is elegant and emotionally ruthless.

Train Dreams has sleeper potential. Wake Up Dead Man is Rian Johnson’s sharpest writing since the first Knives Out. Frankenstein is a poetic, muscular reimagining of the classic text. Further down the list, Hedda and Wicked: For Goodreflect two very different sides of theatrical adaptation.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Michael B. Jordan and director Ryan Coogler on set of *Sinners*. - **Eli Adé/Warner Bros. Entertainment**

TCG Predicted Top 10:

Sinners — Ryan Coogler
It Was Just an Accident — Jafar Panahi, Nader Saeivar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Sentimental Value — Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
Marty Supreme — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
Jay Kelly — Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer
Blue Moon — Robert Kaplow
Sorry Baby — Eva Victor
Is This Thing On? — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell, Bradley Cooper, John Bishop
The Secret Agent — Kleber Mendonça Filho
The Testament of Ann Lee — Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold

Ryan Coogler leads because Sinners is both personal and mythic, thunderous and intimate — a screenplay with enormous moral ambition. Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident is a razor-sharp social and political commentary with global resonance. Trier and Vogt return with one of the year’s most emotionally complex pieces of writing.

Marty Supreme and Jay Kelly bring wildly different tones — one chaotic, one melancholic — but both could rise as awards season intensifies.

For all the noise, strategy, and well-timed rollouts, what makes this season so electric is how fragile its certainty actually is. Nothing is locked. Not Chalamet, not Buckley, not PTA, not Zhao. All the major contenders are operating under conditions that would have been unthinkable a decade ago: fragmented release plans, split-second digital reactions, increasingly international voting blocs, and a public that decides momentum long before the industry does. The Oscars used to crown a consensus. In 2026, there is no consensus — only movement.

What stands out is how much power visibility — or the lack of it — now holds. One Battle After Another is the season’s longest burn, the film everyone has already lived with. Hamnet is brand-new, but its emotional punch is already reshaping major categories. Marty Supreme has shown the world everything except the movie itself, proving that cultural dominance can outrun traditional campaigning. And Wicked: For Good may be the first blockbuster musical in years to have a legitimate seat at the prestige table. These films aren’t just competing — they’re rewriting the terms of competition.

The performances are equally defining the year. Buckley arriving late and detonating the field. Grande shifting from pop star to legitimate awards threat. Moura and Skarsgård delivering the kind of international precision the new Academy embraces. Chalamet carrying a film the public hasn’t seen yet. And Leonardo DiCaprio proving he can still command a category with the force of a tidal shift. These races aren’t just stacked — they’re volatile, each performance pressing against the edges of what Oscar acting categories have historically allowed.

And hovering over all of it is the sense that the Academy itself is no longer a monolith but a mirror — reflecting a global, fractured, endlessly online audience that consumes cinema through a thousand different windows. That makes the race harder to predict, but it also makes it more honest. More chaotic, yes — but more alive. More connected to the moment. More reflective of the art actually being made and the audiences actually consuming it.

As we move into the most decisive stretch of the season — the screenings, the Q&As, the guilds, the “surprise” premieres everyone pretends not to know about — the race will only get louder, sharper, stranger. And that’s the point. This year isn’t about one film rising above the rest. It’s about watching a radically reshaped industry try to define excellence in real time. The question won’t be “What wins?” but “What moment does the Academy choose to honor?”

And for the first time in years, there’s no wrong answer — only the thrill of watching it unfold.