‘Wicked: For Good’ Eyes $115 Million Opening Weekend — and the Movie Musical’s Big Return

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Oct 31

Written By Jonathan P. Moustakas

Cynthia Erivo is Elphaba and Ariana Grande is Glinda in 'Wicked: For Good.' **GILES KEYTE/UNIVERSAL PICTURES**

The Emerald City might just rescue Hollywood — as Wicked: For Good sets the stage for a long-overdue theatrical revival.

As the 2025 box office limps toward year’s end, Universal’s Wicked: For Good could be the rainbow the industry has been waiting for. Early tracking suggests the first chapter in Jon M. Chu’s ambitious two-part adaptation will open to a towering $112–$115 million domestically — a number that would not only make it the highest musical debut in nearly a decade, but also inject some long-missing electricity into a faltering theatrical market.

The film, which stars Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba and Ariana Grande as Glinda, has been positioned as both a prestige event and a populist spectacle — a rare hybrid in today’s IP-dominated landscape. For Universal, Wicked: For Good represents a calculated swing: a bet that nostalgia, star power, and the return of unbridled spectacle can overcome the fatigue of franchise sameness. It’s also an act of faith in the communal power of the movie musical — a genre once central to Hollywood’s identity, now reborn in the streaming era as a risky yet romantic proposition.

When the original Wicked opened on Broadway in 2003, it became an instant cultural phenomenon — a theatrical juggernaut that redefined the musical for a new generation. Its songs, from “Defying Gravity” to “For Good,” entered pop culture canon. But translating that emotional scale to cinema has long been seen as an elusive challenge, one that even the most experienced filmmakers have failed to capture without irony. Chu, who previously directed Crazy Rich Asians and In the Heights, seems acutely aware of that pressure. His approach, based on early footage and behind-the-scenes glimpses, favors intimacy over bombast — even as the world around his characters gleams with the digital grandeur of Oz.

Industry analysts have noted that Wicked: For Good’s projection comes at a crucial moment. October’s total box-office revenue is on pace to be the lowest in 27 years, with audiences proving reluctant to turn out for mid-tier dramas or risk-averse sequels. Theatrical attendance remains heavily polarized between tentpoles and niche hits. In that vacuum, Wickedoffers both: a familiar title with emotional universality. If early tracking holds, the film could rank among the top five openings for the year — and perhaps more importantly, restore confidence in the economic and cultural viability of large-scale studio musicals.

Ariana Grande is Glinda in 'Wicked: For Good.' **GILES KEYTE/UNIVERSAL PICTURES**

A Universal executive familiar with the campaign called Wicked “a bet on hope.” That’s not hyperbole. Since the pandemic, studios have increasingly turned to brand-safe franchises and IP remakes, but few have found the cross-generational spark that musicals once promised. The last major success story, The Greatest Showman, turned slow-burn word-of-mouth into gold. Wicked could ignite that same energy instantly — and for Universal, with its extensive theme park and music divisions, the potential synergies are staggering.

Culturally, Wicked: For Good may also land at an opportune time. The story of two women defined and divided by perception — one demonized, one deified — resonates with audiences navigating identity politics and social media polarization. It’s both a feminist parable and an allegory for power, friendship, and mythmaking. That deeper undercurrent could separate Chu’s vision from the sugary artifice that doomed recent musical adaptations.

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From a marketing standpoint, Universal has executed a masterclass campaign: a steady cadence of teases, costume reveals, soundtrack previews, and viral TikTok moments that have made the film feel omnipresent. The studio leaned into its stars’ massive fanbases — Ariana Grande’s 380 million Instagram followers practically guarantee global visibility — while preserving the mystique of a true theatrical event.

The stakes are enormous. If Wicked: For Good performs as expected, it could pave the yellow brick road for its 2026 sequel, Wicked: For Ever After, and reestablish Universal as the premier studio for musical tentpoles. If it falters, the repercussions could chill the entire genre’s resurgence just as audiences seemed ready to believe again.

Yet even among skeptics, there’s an undeniable sense of optimism surrounding Wicked. For an industry so often accused of cynicism, the idea that a movie musical — about friendship, forgiveness, and finding one’s place in a world of illusions — could save the day feels almost poetic. The box office could use a little magic right now.