2025 Oscars: Predictions
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The 2025 Oscars race for Best Picture is shaping up to be a thrilling competition, with several standout contenders vying for the coveted award. From the highly anticipated blockbusters to critically acclaimed independent films, the diversity and excellence of this year's contenders make it an exciting time for moviegoers and awards enthusiasts. With such a wide array of genres and narratives represented, the competition is heating up, promising one of the most unpredictable and diverse Oscars seasons in recent memory.
Who Will Win at the Academy Awards?
Nominations voting is from January 8-12, 2025, with official Oscar nominations announced on January 17, 2025. Final voting is February 11-18, 2025. The 97th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/4:00 p.m. PT. We update our picks through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2025 Oscar predictions. This year, with so many films on the cusp of greatness, audiences can expect plenty of surprises and upsets, adding to the excitement as we head into the final stretch of awards season.
Best Picture Predictions
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The State of the Race
It has already been said plenty of times, even since Cannes, but this is a really weird year for Best Picture. Academy rules have changed to make it so there will be 10 nominees no matter what, but there are only five to seven films that feel like shoo-ins for an Oscar nomination in the category. The current landscape suggests that there are several films that, while not guaranteed, have a good chance of breaking into the final list of nominees due to their popularity, critical acclaim, or unique storytelling.
With all the uncertainty around what films will make it in, there’s room for one or two newcomers to claim a spot. With critics having seen the last crop of major live-action awards contenders, it feels safest to say that the winners in that respect are Wicked and A Complete Unknown. Both musical projects feel like they occupy a void missing in the Best Picture race, whether it’s starrier fare, more tentpole films, or even just the standard biopic. These films bring a sense of grandeur and spectacle, appealing both to Academy voters who appreciate artistic ambition and to audiences who crave a classic cinematic experience.
Universal Pictures may not have back-to-back Oscar wins for Best Picture, given that Wicked is the first part of a series, but the film is driving people to theaters during a crucial moment in the awards race. Many of these same reasons are why blockbuster Dune: Part Two is seen as a likely Best Picture nominee. The continued success of these large-scale films demonstrates the Academy's evolving preference towards recognizing both critical and commercial hits that can energize audiences and remind them of the magic of the theater.
A Complete Unknown, featuring Timothée Chalamet, is also gaining momentum, while Netflix's Maria has not emerged as a top Best Picture contender. Another contender, A Real Pain from Searchlight Pictures, is gaining traction and could be a surprise inclusion, especially with Searchlight’s strong awards track record. The film's blend of humor, emotional depth, and timely subject matter has made it a dark horse in the race that cannot be ignored.
A24 has two major contenders: The Brutalist and Sing Sing. The Brutalist has been well-received since its Venice premiere, and its themes of artistic struggle and resilience resonate strongly with Academy voters. Meanwhile, Sing Singis a favorite with the actors branch of the Academy, thanks to its compelling performances and ensemble cast. Both films are representative of A24’s signature focus on character-driven narratives that push the boundaries of traditional storytelling.
Focus Features also has Conclave as a top contender, with other strong candidates like Anora, Emilia Pérez, and Nosferatu in the mix. Conclave has impressed with its intelligent script and gripping direction, while Anora and Emilia Pérez have garnered acclaim for their unique perspectives and cultural relevance. Apple Studios’ Blitz is another serious contender, boasting strong direction and a powerful message, and Amazon MGM Studios’ Nickel Boys is expected to gain critical acclaim, potentially giving it the push needed for a Best Picture nomination.
Below, potential nominees are listed in alphabetical order:
Frontrunners:
Conclave
These films represent a blend of genres and storytelling styles, each bringing something distinctive to the competition. From musicals to period dramas to psychological thrillers, the frontrunners this year highlight the depth and diversity of contemporary cinema.
Contenders:
All We Imagine As Light
Challengers
Nosferatu
September 5
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
These contenders, while not quite frontrunners, each have their own merits that could propel them into the nomination spotlight. From innovative storytelling to performances that resonate deeply with audiences, each of these films has something unique that could sway voters in their favor.
Best Director Predictions
Lionel Hahn/Getty Images
The State of the Race The 2025 Best Director race has been heavily influenced by the Academy’s efforts to embrace more international voices. Cannes winner Sean Baker (“Anora”) and French auteur Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”) are frontrunners, alongside Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) and Luca Guadagnino (“Challengers”). German director Edward Berger (“Conclave”) is also a likely candidate. This year’s director race showcases a global perspective, with filmmakers from diverse backgrounds bringing their unique visions to the forefront of cinema.
Frontrunners:
Edward Berger (“Conclave”)
These directors have each delivered powerful and innovative work, establishing themselves as leaders in this year’s race. Audiard’s ability to blend humor and drama, Baker’s authentic portrayal of marginalized communities, and Berger’s precise storytelling make them standout contenders.
Contenders:
Payal Kapadia (“All We Imagine As Light”)
Mike Leigh (“Hard Truths”)
These contenders have crafted films that are both visually and emotionally impactful. From Scott’s epic scope in Gladiator II to Villeneuve’s ambitious continuation of the Dune saga, the competition is filled with distinct directorial voices that have left a lasting impression on audiences and critics alike.
Long Shots:
Robert Eggers (“Nosferatu”)
Tim Fehlbaum (“September 5”)
While these directors face tougher odds, their inclusion is a testament to their bold storytelling and artistic vision. Coppola’s return with Megalopolis has sparked interest, while Eggers’ atmospheric direction in Nosferatu demonstrates his continued commitment to unique and visually arresting cinema.
Best Actor Predictions
Searchlight Pictures
The State of the Race The Best Actor race features several standout performances, with frontrunners including Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”), Daniel Craig (“Queer”), and Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”). Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”) also stands out as a strong contender. This year’s Best Actor category is defined by deeply transformative roles, with actors taking on complex characters that push the boundaries of their craft.
Frontrunners:
Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”)
These actors have each delivered performances that are captivating and emotionally resonant. From Chalamet’s portrayal of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown to Domingo’s commanding performance in Sing Sing, the frontrunners have established themselves as some of the most compelling actors of the year.
Contenders:
André Holland (“Exhibiting Forgiveness”)
These actors, while not quite at the forefront, have delivered nuanced performances that could sway voters. Mescal’s role in Gladiator II and Holland’s touching portrayal in Exhibiting Forgiveness are performances that have caught the attention of critics and audiences alike.
Long Shots:
Kingsley Ben-Adir (“Bob Marley: One Love”)
Hugh Grant (“Heretic”)
Tom Hanks (“Here”)
Though these actors are considered long shots, each has delivered a memorable performance. Garfield and Ben-Adir, in particular, have received praise for their transformative roles, but they face stiff competition from more prominent contenders in the race.
Best Actress Predictions
Neon
The State of the Race The Best Actress race sees a strong mix of established stars and breakout performances. Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”), Angelina Jolie (“Maria”), Nicole Kidman (“Babygirl”), and Mikey Madison (“Anora”) are the current frontrunners, with Saoirse Ronan (“The Outrun”) also expected to receive a nomination. The diverse set of performances in this category ranges from biographical portrayals to original character creations that have resonated with audiences and critics.
Frontrunners:
These actresses have each brought a powerful presence to their roles, from Gascón’s groundbreaking performance to Kidman’s daring and emotional portrayal in Babygirl. Ronan’s performance in The Outrun adds another layer to her already impressive career, making her one of the most versatile actresses working today.
Contenders:
Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”)
Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”)
These actresses have each delivered noteworthy performances, with a mix of veteran talent and rising stars. Erivo’s portrayal in Wicked and Anderson’s role in The Last Showgirl have both received praise for their depth and emotional power, making them potential nominees in a very competitive field.
Long Shots:
Anna Kendrick (“Woman of the Hour”)
Kirsten Dunst (“Civil War”)
Lily Colias (“Good One”)
Renate Reinsve (“Armand”)
Though considered long shots, these actresses have delivered impressive performances that have garnered attention. Pugh and Dunst, in particular, have been praised for their dynamic portrayals, and could still find themselves in the conversation as the awards season progresses.
The 2025 Oscars are shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable award seasons in recent years, with a mix of blockbuster hits, critically acclaimed indie films, and international cinema all vying for recognition. The diversity of the films and filmmakers in the running reflects the evolving landscape of the Academy, which is increasingly embracing a broader range of storytelling styles and voices. This year's contenders represent not just a competition for prestige but also a celebration of the art of filmmaking in all its forms.
As we approach the final voting and the highly anticipated Oscars ceremony, the dynamic nature of this awards season will surely keep audiences and industry insiders alike on the edge of their seats. With frontrunners emerging, surprises in the mix, and campaigns ramping up, the race is far from over. Be sure to stay tuned for further updates as we continue to watch how the 2025 Oscars race unfolds, celebrating the films that have defined the year and the artists who brought them to life.
The 97th Academy Awards will be broadcast live on ABC on Sunday, March 2, 2025, at 7:00 p.m. ET / 4:00 p.m. PT.
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