As awards season reaches its zenith, the BAFTA longlist has injected fresh energy into the Oscars race, redefining what could be one of the most unpredictable years in recent memory. With contenders spanning an eclectic mix of genres and themes, films like Emilia Pérez, Conclave, The Brutalist, and Anora have emerged as major players in the race for Best Picture and other top categories. As we edge closer to the 97th Academy Awards, each new accolade from the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice Awards adds momentum—and complexity—to the competition.

This year’s frontrunners reflect a dynamic cinematic landscape. Emilia Pérez, a bold Spanish-language music thriller, has garnered an impressive 15 BAFTA mentions, including Best Film and Best Director for Jacques Audiard. Meanwhile, Conclave, Edward Berger’s gripping Vatican-set thriller, follows closely behind with 14 mentions, including a standout performance by Ralph Fiennes. These films, alongside The Brutalist and Anora, signify an awards season willing to embrace both daring narratives and nuanced performances.

Amid this flurry of acclaim, films like Maria and The Room Next Door faced significant setbacks, with notable omissions from the BAFTA longlist. Yet, history has shown that surprises can emerge late in the race, with past winners often defying early predictions. With the Golden Globes and SAG nominations looming, the industry waits to see how these pivotal awards might alter the trajectory of Oscar hopefuls.

Below, we delve into the leading contenders, analyzing their chances as the race unfolds. From established giants like Dune: Part Two to breakout hits like Nickel Boys, the journey to Oscar glory remains wide open.

Key Updates on the Oscars Race

Best Picture Predictions

The Best Picture race has crystallized around a few key contenders, each offering a unique cinematic experience.

• Emilia Pérez (Netflix): Jacques Audiard’s ambitious film fuses music, thriller, and drama, delivering an exhilarating ride that earned 15 BAFTA mentions. Its audacious storytelling and technical brilliance make it a frontrunner.

• Conclave (Focus Features): Edward Berger’s film dives into the intricacies of a papal election, with Ralph Fiennes leading a compelling ensemble. Its 14 BAFTA mentions reflect its broad appeal.

• The Brutalist (A24): Brady Corbet’s architectural drama explores themes of creativity and legacy, with Adrien Brody delivering a career-defining performance.

• Anora (Neon): Sean Baker’s indie gem brings raw emotion and powerful social commentary, solidifying its status as a sleeper hit.

• Wicked (Universal Pictures): Jon M. Chu’s dazzling adaptation of the beloved musical has captivated audiences and critics alike, becoming a strong contender in multiple categories.

Acting Categories

The acting races are equally competitive, with breakout performances and veteran stars vying for the spotlight.

Best Actor:

• Adrien Brody (The Brutalist): Brody’s portrayal of an ambitious architect is mesmerizing, earning him critical acclaim and BAFTA recognition.

• Colman Domingo (Sing Sing): Domingo’s transformative performance as a man finding redemption has positioned him as a favorite.

• Timothée Chalamet* (A Complete Unknown): Chalamet’s embodiment of Bob Dylan showcases his range and charisma, making him the one to beat.

Best Actress:

• Cynthia Erivo* (Wicked): Erivo’s powerhouse vocals and emotional depth elevate her role, placing her as a leading contender.

• Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths): Jean-Baptiste’s unflinching portrayal of resilience has resonated deeply with audiences.

• Mikey Madison (Anora): Madison delivers a breakout performance, blending vulnerability with strength in a career-making turn.

Supporting Roles:

• Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown): Norton’s layered performance adds depth to his film, earning him frontrunner status.

• Ariana Grande (Wicked): Grande’s magnetic portrayal of Glinda proves her versatility beyond music, cementing her as a breakout star.

Looking Ahead: Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice

The upcoming Golden Globes and SAG nominations will likely set the tone for the Oscars race, offering insight into industry sentiment. Historically, these awards have been strong predictors of eventual Oscar winners, and with such a diverse slate of contenders, every accolade matters.

The 97th Academy Awards, slated for March 2, 2025, promise to celebrate a year of bold filmmaking and transformative performances. Whether it’s the grandeur of Dune: Part Two or the intimate storytelling of The Nickel Boys, this year’s race reflects the ever-evolving art of cinema.